Strategie Grains sounded a note of caution over wheat prices despite cutting its estimate for Europe's harvests by 1.2m tonnes, citing weaker hopes for French, German and UK crops.
The influential analysis group, in its first cut to European Union soft wheat crop estimates in four months, cut its guess to 129.0m tonnes.
The reduction reflected lower plantings than had been expected, with Europe's average yield left at 5.7 tonnes per hectare.
And the Paris-based group also raised its forecast for 2009-10 exports, leaving the region likely to end the year with stocks of 15.6m tonnes, 2m tonnes less than previously projected.
"The balance sheet is therefore much less heavy than before," Strategie Grains said.
Prices slip
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Strategie Grains EU harvest estimates (change from last report)
Soft wheat: 129.0m tonnes (-1.2m tonnes)
Barley: 61.5m tonnes (unchanged)
Maize: 56.9m tonnes (unchanged)
Durum: 8.1m tonnes (+100,000 tonnes)
Rye: 9.9m tonnes (+200,000 tonnes)
Total: 290.3m tonnes (-900,000 tonnes)
Source: Strategie Grains. Total includes unspecified grains |
Nonetheless, with Europe - notably France, the region's biggest producer - and the world awash with grain, wheat markets were likely to remain depressed.
"There are few real factors with the capacity to push up prices," the analyst said.
The mood, coupled with weak Chicago prices, was reflected in European markets, with Paris's November contract down E1.00 at E127.00 a tonne in late deals.
London feed wheat for November was £2.25 lower at £101.00 a tonne.
Lower sowings
Strategie Grains' revisions follow large reductions this week to France's official wheat crop estimates, also reflecting lower-than-expected data following comparison with European Union subsidy statistics.
UK farmers also sowed less wheat than many analysts initially thought, after a late 2008 harvest disrupted winter plantings.
Germany, meanwhile, has poured cold water on forecasts that its winter wheat crop could beat 20008's 25.7m tonnes, pegging this year's harvest below 25m tonnes.