A sugar contract's dying days have once again driven the commodity to multi-year highs on talk that lots will end up being fulfilled rather than expiring in speculators' hands.

New York raw sugar for July soared 3.3% to 16.81 cents a pound at one point – the highest for a nearest contract nearly three years – on talk that delivery from the contract may hit up to 1.5m tonnes, signalling robust trade demand for the commodity.

Market rumour named Cargill as the likely receiver of the sugar, and India and Indonesia as the most likely destinations.

India, the world's biggest sugar consumer, has become a net importer of the commodity following a switch by farmers to cereal crops and oilseeds, and may continue to rely on foreign shipments.

While India's sugar consumption is estimated at about 23m tonnes a year, production is believed to have fallen by about one quarter in 2008-09 to roughly 15m tonnes and may remain depressed if this year's monsoon proves disappointing, as official forecasters are expecting.

The US Department of Agriculture has forecast Indian sugar imports of 2.5m tonnes in 2009-10.

History repeating itself?

The rise in New York's July contact, which expires on Tuesday, echoes that of the May lot, which also put in a late surge on talk of large fulfilments.

An official statement confirmed that 842,000 tonnes were delivered against the May sugar contracts, with the receivers named as JP Morgan Futures and Term Commodities.

It is widely believed these groups were acting on behalf of Cargill, the US-based commodities giant.

New York's July contract ended at 16.80 cents a pound.

London white sugar for August closed $7.6 higher at $454.7 a tonne.