Fears for the epidemic of so-called swine flu, as the northern hemisphere enters the winter virus season, could help spark a revival in orange juice prices which could last into next year, a leading analyst has said.

Health concerns ahead of a period many epidemiologists believe will spark an upturn in swine flu, or H1N1, could interrupt a decade-long decline in orange juice consumption in America, where consumers have switched to fizzy drinks.

"Ideas that juice will help boost immune systems for children may help raise consumption this fall, as the country braces for the first flu season with H1N1 virus," Terry Roggensack at the Hightower Report said.

Sales had already shown some promising signs, rising 3.8% last month, compared with August 2008, helped also by an 8.2% slide in retail prices.

Juice squeeze 

Demand for US juice, which accounts for about 35% of global output, may be further stoked by the fall in the dollar, in particular against the euro, which hit a year-high against the greenback earlier this month.

The European Union consumes 38% of world orange juice production.

Meanwhile, supply is being squeezed by a fall in US plantings. Washington data last week showed citrus groves in Florida, America's biggest orange-producing state, at 568,800 acres, down 1.3% year on year.

Plantings have been hit by low prices, which have encouraged growers to plant other crops, and by outbreaks since 2005 of citrus greening, a bacterial disease borne by insects.

'Relatively cheap'

Revived inflation fears may also benefit prices, prompting investors to switch money into assets viewed as likely to match price rises.

"With the possibility of the US shifting to a more inflationary environment, a look at markets which are relatively cheap may be in order," Mr Roggensack said, citing orange juice as a "potential buy and hold market into 2010".

"The [orange juice] market is still considered relatively cheap. If the dollar continues to decline and inflation begins to exert more upward pressure on all commodity markets, orange juice is likely to see some benefit."

Orange juice closed at 90.75 cents a pound in New York on Monday, above a year-low of 64.6 cents a pound hit in February, but well below highs above 200 cents a pound reached in March 2007.