Thailand is poised to raise rice shipments this year – but is keeping its ambitions low, suggesting the world's biggest exporter of the grain may be intent on further stockpiling.

Wichak Wesetnoi, a senior official at Thailand's Commerce Ministry, said that the country could sell "at least 9m tonnes" this year.

"We believe that demand will remain strong in 2010," he told reporters.

While an improvement on the 8.57m tonnes exported in 2009, the figure is short of the 10m tonnes hit in 2008, a figure some analysts, including US Department of Agriculture officials in Bangkok, have expected be matched this year.

USDA attaches forecast last month that global rice prices may fall in the first half of this year as Thailand, which had been exporting at a rate "far below potential", began to sell down inventories expected to have reached a record 4.0m tonnes by last month.

Exports of 9m tonnes this year would imply stocks ending 2010 at more than 6m tonnes, with benign weather helping the country raise plantings. Production is expected to rise 4.6% to 20.5m tonnes on a milled basis.

Quality controls 

Mr Wichak highlighted that Thailand would "maintain" quality controls this year, especially on premium grades of rice, "in a bid to earn more in terms of value".

Premium, fragrant grades are particularly popular with longstanding importers in Asia, which took 19% of Thailand's rice exports in 2009.

Demand for lower grades was particularly strong among African importers, stoked by an Indian ban on all-but basmati rice.

Separately, Vietnam, the second-biggest rice exporter, said it had exported a record 5.95m tonnes last year, helped by a weaker currency.

Demand for rice has been stoked by strong demand among importing countries, including Philippines, whose domestic crop was damaged by typhoons.

Global rice imports will rise by 1.66m tonnes to 30.35m tonnes in 2009-10, the USDA believes.