It is too early to judge whether the "excessive dryness" which dogged Russia's winter grain plantings will prompt a repeat of the crop breakdown four years ago, Washington has said in a report signalling that winter wheat sowings may be on for a record.

Russia's winter crops faced "unfavourably dry" conditions which had hampered emergence and forced some fields to be replanted, the US Department of Agriculture said.

And, while recent rains had replenished surface moisture levels, the deeper soil crops will draw on for later development remains "depleted".

Chill factor 

However, autumn drought alone may not signal a 2005-style hit, when about 35% of plantings failed to survive the winter, and Russia's wheat harvest fell by nearly 3m tonnes despite benign conditions for the rest of the growing season.

"Favourable subsequent weather can compensate for early-season dryness," the USDA said, noting the role of a "bitterly cold" winter in crop failures four years ago, when temperatures dropped to minus 30 degrees centigrade.

"Excessive fall dryness alone will not necessarily result in a significant or irreversible loss in potential winter crop yield."

Higher plantings 

The comments came in a report which forecast that a "likely" rise in Russia's winter grain area, noting data from official and private sources concurred on plantings running ahead of last season's by 4-5%.

In the Central district, sowing had ended with area up 6%.

While plantings in the important Southern area had yet to be completed, data suggested that Russia's winter grain area would "likely match or slightly surpass" last year's, when winter sowings hit a record high.