Tight credit conditions, lower market prices and the prospect of a stronger euro denting exports are taking a toll on Europe's grain plantings, US officials have said.
US Department of Agriculture attaches in London have raised by 2.2m tonnes, to 290.7m tonnes, their estimate of the European Union grain crop this year, citing in particular "improved expectations" for Poland's barley harvest.
However, their briefing, which comes ahead of revised USDA global crop estimates due on Tuesday, forecast a second successive year of falling grain sowings.
"With EU on-farm prices under pressure and the financial outlook remaining uncertain, plantings for the 2010 grain harvest are expected lower," the report said.
The briefing comes a week after the International Grains Council also forecast a decline in global grain sowings, blaming lower prices. Neither report put a numerical estimate on the drop in plantings.
'Stiffer competition'
The strength of the euro was weighing on farmers in eurozone countries, which include France and Germany, the biggest wheat-growing states.
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EU grain dynamics, 2009-10 (year-on-year change)
Plantings: 58.0m hectares (-4.2%)
Production: 290.7m tonnes (-7.1%)
Exports: 23.8m tonnes (-24%)
Year-end stocks: 37.1m tonnes (-5.6%)
Source: USDA attache report |
"Unlike last season, an unfavourable euro exchange rate means that grain exports are facing the prospect of much stiffer competition," the report said, forecasting a 24% slide to 23.8m in EU shipments.
"This is having a knock-on effect on planting decisions."
In the EU's less prosperous eastern states, where planting conditions have been "excellent", weaker farm profitability "is reportedly reducing the ability of farmers to obtain much-needed credit".
While credit was not a problem in western nations, dry weather had delayed sowings and "will likely increase the vulnerability of late-sown crops to overkill", the report said.
'Exports have slowed'
The report's warning of a cut in EU exports follows France's success in winning half of the 120,000 tonnes of wheat Egypt bought through tender Thursday.
Nonetheless, Europe's shipments outside the region are, at 6.19m tonnes since the 2009-10 marketing year began at the start of July, down by one quarter, as measured by official export licenses.
"Exports have slowed down and even if the case with Egypt is considered encouraging, the volumes remain low," Agritel, the Paris-based consultancy, said.
The attache report forecast EU wheat exports falling by one quarter to 19.0m tonnes, a figure 1.0m tonnes below Washington's official estimate, if above the projections of some analysts.