Efforts by Uganda, which gave the world robusta coffee trees, to revive itself as a force in the commodity are "bearing fruit", with production set to come in double levels of five years ago, the lowest since at least the 1950s.
A five-part plan, extending from researching new robusta varieties to the development of specialty brands, by the African country to recover its foothold in the global coffee trade will see output of arabica and robusta beans combined hit 3.3m bags in 2010-11.
Exports will hit 2.8m tonnes, again double 2005-06 levels, and sufficient to revive Uganda's share of global trade nearly to 3%, US officials based in neighbouring Kenya said.
While still half the share Uganda boasted in the early 1970s - when the country significantly outranked Vietnam, now the world's second biggest coffee producer and trader - it represents a significant revival from a dip blamed largely on archaic farming practices and the spread of coffee wilt disease.
"The government's policy initiative may be bearing fruit," the officials said in a report.
Robusta vs arabica
The revival plan, termed Manifesto 2006-11, aims to triple to 1.5 tonnes per hectare Uganda's yields of robusta beans, of which it is Africa's top producer, and the world's sixth biggest, and which evolved in the country and its neighbouring Great Lakes states.
Central to the strategy is the development of varieties resistant to coffee wilt, a fatal fungal infection, which at the height of the last outbreak infected nearly half its coffee trees. Seven new breeds are being investigated.
The disease has increased the attractions of arabica trees, which have proved more resistant, besides garnering better prices.
"Robusta coffee exports continue to dominate, but arabicas may be gaining ground, spurred largely by the price differential with robustas, which trade at as little as one-third the price of arabicas sold into the North American and European markets," the briefing said.
Coffee has historically been responsible for more than half of Uganda's export takings, with cotton, tea and tobacco other key earners.