Ukraine's grain 2009-10 exports could come just 1m tonnes short of last year's record despite a significantly weaker harvest this season, a leading agriculture trade group has said.

The Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation said that grain exports could hit 23-24m tonnes for the year to the end of next June after shipments topped 12m tonnes before getting half way through the season.

The estimate is higher both than that of UkrAgroConsult, which had pegged Ukraine's grain exports at 19m tonnes, and the government of the Black Sea state, which sees shipments at 20m tonnes.

And it comes despite a drop to 48m tonnes in production this year, 5.3m tonnes short of last year's record.

Digging deep 

Factoring in the UAC's estimate of 27m tonnes for domestic grain consumption, the data imply demand for the grain will exceed production by 3m tonnes in 2009-10.

However, Ukraine was able to meet this shortfall from digging into reserves estimated at 8.0m tonnes, the confederation said.

Ukraine ended 2008-09 with wheat reserves of 3.1m tonnes, up 1.0m tonnes from a year before, with coarse grain inventories 1.4m tonnes higher at 3.0m tonnes, according to US Department of Agriculture figures.