Ukraine has, after a continuing strong run in shipments, hiked its grains exports target by up to 25%, despite doubts over the ability of next year's crop to replenish silos.

Yuri Melynk, Ukraine's farm minister, raised his estimate of 2009-10 exports to 20m tonnes, from 16m-17m tonnes, news agency Unian said.

The revision, while leaving exports well below the 25.3m tonnes in 2008-09, follows widespread suspicions of a revision, after exports neared half way to the initial target within the first four months of the marketing year.

UkrAgroConsult, the Kiev-based consultancy, had pegged exports at 19m tonnes, a forecast it retained following Mr Melynk's statement.

Grain exports represent a valuable source of foreign currency to recession-hit Ukraine, which saw its economy contract by 20% in the year to August.

The country is in talks with the IMF over details of a $16.4bn bailout package.

'Alarmingly unfavourable'

The revision comes amid lingering doubts over the potential for next year's grain harvest, after drought got winter plantings off to a poor start.

Mykola Vernytsky, director of ProAgro agriculture consultancy, has said that winter wheat production could halve.

A US Department of Agriculture report last week said that conditions for some winter sowings had been "alarmingly unfavourable", noting that a lack of soil moisture "hampered the emergence and establishment of winter crops in significant areas of southern and eastern Ukraine".

Ukraine, once billed as the breadbasket of the Soviet Union, two years ago imposed export restrictions to avoid a domestic grain shortage.

Resilient crop

Nonetheless, the USDA also highlighted the "extreme resilience" of winter wheat, and some analysts have warned against being too pessimistic at this stage.

UkrAgroConsult has pegged the total 2010 wheat harvest at 17m-18m tonnes, down at worst 15% year on year.