Washington has slashed its expectations for China's corn harvest, noting "unusual heat and dryness" in some areas, but kept its estimate well above gloomier trade forecasts.
China's corn crop will come in at 155.0m tonnes this year, the US Department of Agriculture said, knocking 5.0m tonnes, roughly the same as Germany's production, from its forecast.
The revision reflected "confirmation that unusual heat and dryness during late July and early August severely hampered corn pollination in the western growing areas of the northeast" of China, the USDA said.
Varying estimates
However, the report also noted raised expectations for the corn area that China will harvest, which "partly offsets this month's yield reduction".
Some forecasters, including Shanghai-based JC Intelligence, have pegged that China's corn production will fall below 150m tonnes because of drought in main growing areas.
Chinese officials have stuck by forecasts of a crop near last year's 166m tonnes.
US hopes raised
The USDA trimmed its forecast for global corn production to 792.5m tonnes, with rising hopes for crops in Europe and North America in part offsetting China's woes.
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Key corn forecasts, 09-10 (change from previous estimate)
Global output: 792.54m tonnes (-1.52m tonnes)
US output: 330.67m tonnes (+1.61m tonnes)
Chinese output: 155.00m tonnes (-5.00m tonnes)
Global stocks at year end: 136.25m tonnes (-2.87m tonnes)
Source: USDA |
The estimate for this year's US corn crop was raised by 1.61m tonnes (63m bushels) to 330.67m tonnes (13.0bn bushels).
While US farmers had planted 700,000 acres of corn less than had been thought, the crop was heading for a yield of 164.2 bushels per acre, higher than a previous estimate of 161.9 bushels per acre, the USDA said.
The increase would feed through into US stocks of 42.5m tonnes (1.67bn bushels) by the end of the year 2009-10 next August, 940,000 tonnes (37m bushels) more than previously forecast.
Corn for December delivery closed down 1.75 cents at $3.62 ¼ a bushel in Chicago.