The pace of US corn shipments will have to increase "substantially" if they are to meet the official forecast of 2bn bushels, a leading academic has said.

America looks on course to sell enough corn abroad to meet the meet the US Department of Agriculture's estimate of a 142m-bushel rise in exports in 2009-10, University of Illinois farm economist Darrel Good said.

Sales to foreign buyers have already hit 1.21m bushels for the marketing year, with more than six months of it yet to run.

On a weekly basis, sales need to reach only 26.6m bushels for the rest of the season to hit target, one third less than they have been averaging so far.

"The pace of outstanding export sales is encouraging," Mr Good said.

Exports lag 

However, actual exports have failed to keep up, standing only 30m bushels higher, on a cumulative basis, than at the same point last year, an increase too small to keep them on track.

Mr Good said: "To reach the USDA projection, weekly shipments need to average about 42.2m bushels from now through August," a rate 27% faster than they have managed so far in 2009-10.

"The pace of shipments will have to accelerate substantially to reach the projection."

Soybeans on course

For soybeans, Mr Good's calculations, which factor in Census Bureau export data as well as USDA statistics, showed that the crop was comfortably on track, in both sales and shipment terms, to hit an export estimate of 1.4bn bushels.

However, he noted that sales should show a seasonal decline as record crops in South American producers comes to market.