US corn stocks may hit their highest for more than 20 years after raised plantings and bumper yields put the country on track for a record crop this year.
On average, analysts believe that the US Department of Agriculture will, in its first estimates for American corn dynamics in 2010-11, peg stocks at the end of the marketing year at 1.90bn bushels (48.3m tonnes), representing a small rise.
However, some are predicting a far higher figure, after US farmers began their sowing season at a record pace, encouraged by benign weather, a factor many observers believe
Data late on Monday showed growers had planted 81% of their corn crop, compared with an average of 62% completed by now.
'Especially high yield forecast'
"Early planting of the 2010 crop, along with a relatively high trend yield calculation used by the USDA, should result in an especially high yield forecast for corn," Darrell Good, agricultural economist at University of Illinois, said.
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Where will the USDA peg end 2010-11 stocks? Analysts' expectations
Corn: 1.90bn bushels
Soybeans: 340m bushels
Wheat: 953m bushels
Source: Reuters poll |
Many analysts have also speculated that the good sowing conditions will encourage many farmers to switch to corn from other, later-planted crops, including potentially soybeans.
Broker Linn Group has forecast the US corn crop ending 2010-11 at 2.40bn bushels (61.0m tonnes), which would represent the highest figure since 1987-88.
Inventories of a commodity are viewed as a key indicator of price strength, in showing the resilience of supplies, especially when compared with consumption to form the so-called stocks-to-use ratio.
Soybean sowings ahead
Soybean stocks are also expected to increase over 2010-11, with the consensus forecast pegging year-end inventories at 340m bushels (9.3m tonnes), near-doubling over the year.
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Where will the USDA peg end 2009-10 stocks? Analysts' expectations
Corn: 1.86bn bushels (1.90bn bushels)
Soybeans: 180m bushels (190m bushels)
Wheat: 946m bushels (950m bushels)
Source: Reuters poll. Current USDA estimates in brackets |
Last night's sowing data showed US soybean plantings, at 30% completed, also way ahead of the average of a 19% figure by now.
Wheat inventories are expected to show marginal growth over 2010-11, to 953m bushels, as bumper yields and weak exports offset the impact of a slide in sowings.
However, a tour by grain experts of Kansas farms last week has raised some questions over wheat production, forecasting yields below investors' expectations, which have been lifted by USDA estimates that 66% of the national crop is in "good" or "excellent" condition.