PRINTABLE VERSION   EMAIL TO A FRIEND   RSS FEEDS 10:43 UK, 11th May 2010, by Agrimoney.com
US corn stocks 'may hit highest for 20 years'

US corn stocks may hit their highest for more than 20 years after raised plantings and bumper yields put the country on track for a record crop this year.

On average, analysts believe that the US Department of Agriculture will, in its first estimates for American corn dynamics in 2010-11, peg stocks at the end of the marketing year at 1.90bn bushels (48.3m tonnes), representing a small rise.

However, some are predicting a far higher figure, after US farmers began their sowing season at a record pace, encouraged by benign weather, a factor many observers believe

Data late on Monday showed growers had planted 81% of their corn crop, compared with an average of 62% completed by now.

'Especially high yield forecast'

"Early planting of the 2010 crop, along with a relatively high trend yield calculation used by the USDA, should result in an especially high yield forecast for corn," Darrell Good, agricultural economist at University of Illinois, said.

Where will the USDA peg end 2010-11 stocks? Analysts' expectations

Corn: 1.90bn bushels

Soybeans: 340m bushels

Wheat: 953m bushels

Source: Reuters poll

Many analysts have also speculated that the good sowing conditions will encourage many farmers to switch to corn from other, later-planted crops, including potentially soybeans.

Broker Linn Group has forecast the US corn crop ending 2010-11 at 2.40bn bushels (61.0m tonnes), which would represent the highest figure since 1987-88.

Inventories of a commodity are viewed as a key indicator of price strength, in showing the resilience of supplies, especially when compared with consumption to form the so-called stocks-to-use ratio.

Soybean sowings ahead 

Soybean stocks are also expected to increase over 2010-11, with the consensus forecast pegging year-end inventories at 340m bushels (9.3m tonnes), near-doubling over the year.

Where will the USDA peg end 2009-10 stocks? Analysts' expectations

Corn: 1.86bn bushels (1.90bn bushels)

Soybeans: 180m bushels (190m bushels)

Wheat: 946m bushels (950m bushels)

Source: Reuters poll. Current USDA estimates in brackets

Last night's sowing data showed US soybean plantings, at 30% completed, also way ahead of the average of a 19% figure by now.

Wheat inventories are expected to show marginal growth over 2010-11, to 953m bushels, as bumper yields and weak exports offset the impact of a slide in sowings.

However, a tour by grain experts of Kansas farms last week has raised some questions over wheat production, forecasting yields below investors' expectations, which have been lifted by USDA estimates that 66% of the national crop is in "good" or "excellent" condition.