Analysts forecasting a mega US corn crop this year could be out by more than 1bn bushels, a satellite analysis group has said, warning that yields will suffer a hangover from this year's delayed plantings.
Illinois-based Lanworth Inc, which foresaw the huge rise in US Department of Agriculture corn plantings estimates in June, has forecast US production of the crop will be 12.24bn bushels this year, on a yield of 153.8 bushels per acre.
The figures are lower than the current USDA estimates, which analysts are expecting to be raised in a monthly crop report on Friday to 12.93bn bushels for production and 161.5 bushels per acre for yield.
Some analysts have set the bar even higher, with Informa Economics pegging the harvest at 13.3bn bushels, on a yield of 168 bushels per acre.
Looks deceive?
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US corn crop production (bushels), yield (bushels per acre) estimates
Current USDA: 12.76bn, 159.5
Informa Economics: 13.3bn, 168
Lanworth: 12.24bn, 153.8
Analysts predict the USDA will raise its estimates on Friday to 12.93bn, 161.5 |
Nick Kouchoukos, Lanworth vice-president, said that it was understandable that analysts were forecasting such high yields, given the fine condition of US corn plants.
"What you have is a very good-looking crop, very green, very tall," Mr Kouchoukos told Agrimoney.com.
The hitch is the deadlines enforced by the shorter autumn days and, eventually, frosts which bring yield development to a halt.
Late flowering has left the crop with a relatively short period to set and develop seed.
'Not filled out'
"When we get to harvest time, what we are going to find is that seeds are not high [in number], or that they have not filled out as in previous years," Mr Kouchoukos said.
"All the inputs from solar radiation will have gone into developing the plant, rather than its seed."
The high levels of cloud cover during the summer, which Lanworth's satellite information had highlighted, had also set back prospects.
"Reduced solar input means less photosynthesis, which means less yield formation," he said.
Trade scepticism
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US soy crop production (bushels), yield (bushels per acre) estimates
Current USDA: 3.199bn, 41.7
Informa Economics: 3.37bn, 44.1
Lanworth: 3.021bn, 39.9
Analysts predict the USDA will raise its estimates on Friday to 3.256bn, 42.4 |
However, Mr Kouchoukos warned that the lower yields highlighted by Lanworth's modelling would not be reflected in USDA data until next month, when the late stage of the crop cycle allows the department to undertake more objective analysis.
And many analysts remained sceptical of the forecasts.
"Supposedly, Lanworth were within 1% of the USDA estimate last year in their estimate for corn so maybe they should be taken seriously," Vic Lespinasse, at GrainAnalyst.com, said.
"However, their guesses differ sharply from the trade averages [for Friday's report]. I do not subscribe to their very low crop guesses."
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