US hopes of record soybean exports will be dashed by competition from huge South American harvests, Rabobank has warned in a report forecasting falls ahead for both bean and rapeseed prices.

Washington's forecast of soybean exports of 1.31bn bushels next year "appears overdone", the bank said, estimating the actual figure will fall short by nearly 100m bushels.

The US Department of Agriculture estimate underplays the prospect of a record crop in South America, where many farmers have been planting fast-maturing varieties to cash in on prices which remain well above historical levels.

"This may result in some Brazilian supplies coming onto the market as early as January 2010," Rabobank's City office said in a report which cut forecasts for Chicago soybean prices.

"Final US export numbers may disappoint given the volume of new crop supply from South America."

'Bearish view'

The bank, proclaiming a "bearish view" on forward soybean contracts, forecast prices successively falling to $8.50 a bushel by next summer.

"Despite the stronger price direction in the first half of October, Rabobank is forecasting the overall bearish trend in Chicago soybean prices as likely to continue over the next 12 months," the briefing said.

The shortfall in imports would rebuild US stocks to 330m bushels by the end of the 2009-10 year, next August, compared with a Washington prediction of 230m bushels.

Rapeseed hit

The rich supply of South American soybeans will also put an end to a rally in rapeseed prices fuelled by demand from Europe's feed industry.

"Based on the lack of supply in the soybeans market, Rabobank expects rapeseed prices to see some further upside over coming months," the report said.

"But like the rest of the oilseed complex, there appears to be a weaker outlook following the South American soybeans harvest."