Iraq's snubbing of American wheat in its latest mega-tender may reflect a trend which will see US farmers lose dominance over supplies to the Middle Eastern importer, analysts have said.

Baghdad's decision to split a 380,000-tonne order between Canadian and Russian supplies leaves purchases from the US running way behind historic rates.

Iraq, which typically buys up to 60% of its wheat imports from America, has bought only 155,000 tonnes of US wheat so far in 2009-10, a drop of 87% year on year.

The decline reflects Iraq's increasing focus on value, which may entrench Black Sea grain in tender awards, observers said.

'Rather burdensome' 

"Iraq has become a price sensitive buyer," one analyst said.

Another told Agrimoney.com: "It is interesting to note that Iraq, which has always been a quality buyer, now looking increasingly at price.

"That looks good for the prospects for Russia but not for exports from the US, which are already running behind. The outlook for US stocks all looks rather burdensome."

Black Sea threat 

The comments were echoed in a report from Australia's commodities bureau, Abare, which noted that Russia and Ukraine have raised their share of global wheat trade to 22%, from 2%, over the last decade.

"The quality of Black Sea wheat and barley is generally lower than those produced in the US and Australia," Abare said.

"However, Black Sea grains are highly price competitive and have begun to gain market share from traditional exporters, particularly from the US.

"Traditional exporters are likely to face increased competition from the Black Sea area in the foreseeable future."

The Black Sea producers, a region also typically viewed as including Kazakhstan, have invested heavily in grain production in recent years, with the aim of diversifying their economies, holding down food price inflation and increasing prospects for foreign currency earnings.

* Separately, Kazakh agriculture minister Akylbek Kurishbayev said that the country's exports of grain and flour from last year's harvest were, at 4.8m tonnes, running 1m tonnes ahead, year on year.

Kazakhstan's grain harvest rose by 35% to 21m tonnes in 2009.