The collapse in plantings of soft red winter wheat to record lows in big-producing US states will not be enough to revive prices unless consumption improves, farm economist Darrel Good has said.

Year-end stocks of the wheat, the type traded in Chicago, will likely slump more than 40% to 112m bushels in 2010-11 thanks to the 29% slump in sowings, which in Illinois, Indiana, Missouri and Ohio fell to their lowest since records began.

The forecast assumes yields and imports in line with those expected by the US Department of Agriculture for the current season.

However, this level of inventories would be "still healthy" by historical comparison, standing well above the 55m bushels three years before, a level which contributed to the 2008 price spike.

"Even with a sharp decline in acreage, a shortage will not develop unless [domestic] use rebounded by 40m-50m bushels," Mr Good said, viewing a rally in soft red winter wheat as "unlikely".

'Weak demand' 

While such revival could be put on the cards by a fall in global wheat output, Mr Good flagged the falling orders which have undermined prices for last year's soft red winter wheat crop, despite it coming in one-third shy of the 2008 harvest.

"It was thought that smaller supplies would result in… relatively high prices," Mr Good, farm economist at the University of Illinois, said.

"This has not happened because of weak demand."

The falling use of the wheat, a lower-protein variety used to make cakes, pastries, and crackers, reflects falling demand by feed companies and importers, according to USDA data.