10:28 UK, 1st December 2009, by Agrimoney.com
US official restates lower guess for Argentine soy

America's farm attaché in Buenos Aires has, noting continued drought in some areas, stuck with his forecast of a 52m-tonne Argentine soybean crop, despite Washington's greater optimism over the harvest.

Dwight Wilder said that he was retaining his forecast that Argentine farmers would plant 18.5m hectares of soybeans for the 2010 harvest.

Although rains in some districts this month had whetted farmers' appetite for soybeans, to cash in on global prices strengthened by Argentina's drought-damaged harvest this year, they had in parts been so heavy that they had hampered sowings, he said.

Meanwhile, soil moisture remained "insufficient" in the important growing province of Cordoba.

'Lingering drought' 

"Some contacts indicate that [national] yields will be lower than previously forecast due to the lingering drought in Cordoba," Mr Wilder said in a report, adding that he did not expect yield to surpass 2.8 tonnes per hectare.

Argentine soybeans, 2009-10 (year-on-year change) - attache's view

Plantings: 18.5m hectares (+7.6%)

Production: 52.0m tonnes (+63%)

Exports: 12.0m tonnes (+189%)

Crush: 37.5m tonnes (+89%)

Ending stocks: 3.1m tonnes (+79%)

Source: USDA attache report

The report comes three weeks after the US Department of Agriculture, in its latest global crops report, raised its forecast for Argentina's soybean output by 500,000 tonnes to 53m tonnes citing a shift by farmers to planting soybeans rather than sunflowers.

The upgrade surprised many investors given sparse rainfall in many areas, which has prompted Oil World, the analysis group, to cut its Argentine soybean forecast by 4m tonnes to 48m tonnes.

Mr Wilder said that the switch out of sunflowers, which farmers had shunned because of low prices and dry weather, could yet see soybean acres rise to 18.8m hectares.

More rain needed 

The comments follow a report from the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange last week which also highlighted the need for further rains.

"Except for the most fortunate areas, showers [over the last week] were mainly light or moderate," the exchange said.

"Most western areas still need significant rainfall."

Farmers had planted just 5.4% of their crop over the week, taking the total to 49.6% of the 19m hectares that the exchange expects.



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