"Much tighter" US pork supplies should spare pig farmers from a third successive year of losses, as exports rise at a time of declining production, a leading academic has said.

Purdue University economist Chris Hurt has revised a warning made in November that America's pig farmers were poised to add this year to the $5bn losses suffered in 2008 and 2009.

Pig rearing, which been running up losses of $20 per hog, was poised this year to match costs of about $50 per hundredweight as a 10% rise in exports squeezed domestic supplies at a time when US consumers are set to rediscover their taste for pork.

For hog farmers "2010 represents more than just a new year", Mr Hurt said.

"It brings improving prospects for business survival, a breath of fresh air in a financially drowning industry."

Tighter market

US pork exports are set to rise this year by 400m pounds to 4.6bn pounds, according to US Department of Agriculture estimates.

Factoring in population growth, pork supplies would fall by 6% per capita, a "relatively large supply reduction", and this at a time when economic recovery and the demise of fears of so-called swine flu stoked demand.

"Domestic consumers will notice much tighter pork supplies in 2010," Mr Hurt said.

Russia threat 

The comments follow a marked improvement in the US market, with Chicago's spot contract standing at 67.20 cents a pound on Thursday, up more than 50% from its August low.

And many analysts, including the Hightower Report, foresee further gains as demand recovers.

"If the global economy continued to expand, the dollar stays weak and inflationary pressures continue, hogs are in a position to see significant gains in the first half of 2010," the Chicago-based analysis group said.

One hurdle to a recovery was a ban by Russia on poultry products cleaned using chlorine, closing off America's biggest poultry export market and raising the threat of white being dumped on US consumers.

"We are concerned with the potential for a jump in near-term meat supply if Russia bans US poultry for too long," Hightower analyst Terry Roggensack said.