America's soybean crop is heading for a record after all, despite a fifth successive week of worsening condition ratings, Oil World analysts have said, saving their concerns for world rapeseed production.

The production decline, from last year's 91.3m tonnes, that US Department of Agriculture analysts pencilled in last week will not be realised, provided there are no weather scares, the influential analysis group said.

Its forecast of a 92.3m-tonne harvest follows five successive weeks of deterioration in the condition of the US crop although, with 65% rated by the USDA as in "good or "excellent", it is still in comparably good health.

The good and excellent rating was 75% a month ago.

"During the past two weeks crop conditions deteriorated slightly in the US, but they are still in line with last year and comparatively favourable in the historical perspective," Oil World said.

Some analysts are already forecasting a potential rebound in crop condition, as rains refresh dry areas. 

"The ratings should improve next week in the [Mississippi] Delta and Mid South with the rain," broker US Commodities said.

Reduced plantings 

The strong US harvest would not be able to prevent a decline in the world crop of some 5m tonnes, as soybean sowings slide in South America, after a record crop in 2009-10.

"Prices of meat have increased to very attractive levels in recent weeks, which could imply an expansion in cattle raising on marginal areas which may partly occur at the expense of soybean plantings."

Nonetheless, the group's world production forecast, at 255.8m tonnes, was higher than the USDA estimate.

Rapeseed prices 

However, Oil World was more downbeat in its expectations for world production of rapeseed and its canola variant, forecasting a slide in output of 5.2% to 56.8m tonnes.

"Yield prospects have deteriorated," the briefing said, noting that a wet spring had, besides hindering sowings, prevented sprayers working on fields.

The squeeze in world supplies would raise prices of rapeseed and rapeseed oil "above those of competing commodities", the report said.