US soybean stocks are on course to hit their lowest for since the year when Jimmy Carter was US president, George Lucas launched the first Star Wars movie and Elvis Presley died.

The US Department of Agriculture has cut to 110m bushels, from 130m bushels, its forecast for inventories at the end of the crop's marketing year in August.

US inventories have not been lower since 1977, when they hit 103m.

Chicago soybeans for July delivery, while jumping to $12.54 a bushel in early deals, closed at $12.47 a bushel, up 3.5 cents on the day.

Chinese hunger

The USDA said the revision, which is 4m bushels bigger than analysts had expected, reflected a prediction of a record 1.25bn bushels in soybean exports, 10m bushels more than it had previously forecast.

Department officials raised their assessment of that Beijing's appetite for foreign soybeans, taking their forecast for Chinese imports 1.3m tonnes higher to 38.8m tonnes for the year.

They also trimmed even further estimates for Argentina's drought-plagued crop.

"Projected exports for Argentina are reduced 2m tonnes to 5.4m, the lowest in nine years," the USDA said in its June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

Argentina's exports last year were, at 13.8m tonnes, more than twice as high.

The report added that the US soybean squeeze would feed through into 2009-10 – a year including this summer's crop – with stocks for August next year pared by 20m bushels to 210m bushels.

US farmers could expect $9.00-$11.00 a bushel for this harvest, up $0.55 on previous estimates.

Rapeseed reduction

Overall global oilseed production was pegged 700,000 tonnes lower at 421.4m tonnes, mainly due to lower rapeseed output, the USDA added.

"European Union rapeseed production is reduced by 600,000 tonnes to 18.5m tonnes mainly due to lower yields resulting from dry conditions in April and May in eastern growing areas," the report said.