The US will be forced to make further cuts to its grain export forecasts, Rabobank has said, as Washington admitted there was "no indication" of a rebound in a weak pace of wheat shipments.

America looks "highly unlikely" to export the 12.1m bushels of wheat a week needed to hit official forecasts for 2009-10, especially now rival shipper Australia is on for a bumper harvest.

"The US [is] continuing to battle for price competitiveness in the world market," Rabobank said, noting that prices of American wheat proposed to an Egyptian tender last week were 22% above the winning Russian bids, and 13% above European offers.

For corn too, strong competition from alternatives for livestock feed means the US is unlikely to meet US Department of Agriculture export forecasts, which imply shipments at 10% above average levels.

"Export demand for US wheat and corn remains weak, and we expect the USDA to revise its 200-10 US export forecasts for both grains lower over the coming months," a report from Rabobank's City office said.

"[This] will increase stocks [estimates] and weigh on prices."

'No indication' 

The report came as the USDA described as "a bit of a puzzle" the weak pace of America's wheat since the 2009-10 marketing year started in July, given the decline in the dollar, which should have made US exports more competitive.

"Yet there is no indication that wheat exports are picking up."

Export sales of wheat were, at 4.1m tonnes by the end of October, down 19% year on year.

'Dramatic' slowdown 

The department also admitted that America's corn exports "slowed dramatically" last month, falling 36% compared with October 2008, blaming in the main increased competition from Ukrainian corn, and from Russian and European wheat.

The USDA comments came in documents giving further details of its decisions last week to cut its estimate of American wheat exports in 2009-10 by 25m bushels to 875m bushels, and its forecast for corn shipments by 50m bushels to 2.1bn bushels.