Low prices and the impact of the wet autumn have driven American winter wheat sowings to their lowest in nearly a century, in the face of a slowdown in exports of the grain to their lowest for 38 years.
However, the impact on markets of the decline, which was considerably bigger than analysts had expected, was overshadowed by raised forecasts for US and global stocks as of the end of 2009-10, sending wheat down 6.4% in Chicago.
In Paris, benchmark wheat suffered its biggest decline since July.
US farmers sowed 37.1m acres with winter wheat for harvesting this year, cutting plantings by 6.21m acres, an area bigger than the size of Israel, Washington data have revealed.
The decline to the lowest figure since 1913 reflected the wet weather which, besides directly slowing planting activity, delayed the corn and soybean harvests, leaving fields earmarked for wheat sowing tied up with standing crops.
"The late row crop harvest and wet weather delayed planting in most states," the US Department of Agriculture said.
'Late harvest, heavy rains'
The decline was led by soft red winter wheat, the type grown in the cornbelt, for which sowings slumped by 29% to 5.92m acres.
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Winter wheat sowings for 2010 harvest, by type (yr-on-yr change)
Hard red winter: 27.8m acres (-12%)
Soft red winter: 5.92m acres (-29%)
White winter: 3.33m acres (-1%)
Total (excl durum): 37.1m acres (-14.3%)
Durum:205,000 acres (-33%)
Source: USDA |
"Large acreage decreases from last year occurred in all soft red wheat-growing states due to the late row crop harvest, heavy rains, and wet soil conditions," the USDA said.
Sowings of the wheat – Chicago's benchmark variety – have hit a record low in some states, including Illinois and Missouri, where plantings have halved.
However, the USDA also noted the impact of "low prices", which continued to a 12% fall to 27.8m acres in sowings of hard red winter wheat, America's main winter variety.
Wheat prices stand at less than half levels hit two years ago, with a rebound in the last three monts of 2009 attributed to buying pressure from commodity investors rather than supply-and-demand fundamentals, which remain weak both in the US and the world.
Mammoth inventories
In a separate report, Washington cut by 50m bushels to 825m bushels (22.5m tonnes) its estimate for US wheat exports in 2009-10, the lowest figure since 1971-72.
The cut reflected "the slow pace of shipments and sales, and strong foreign competition", the USDA said, trimming its hopes for farmgate prices for wheat to $4.75-5.00 a bushel, down 5 cents on each end of the range.
The estimate for global production was raised by 2.3m tonnes to 676.1m tonnes, thanks in the main to a higher assessment of Russia's crop.
World stocks will end of 2009-10 at 195.60m tonnes, 4.7m tonnes more than previously forecast.
Transatlantic dip
In Chicago, wheat for March delivery closed down 36 cents at $5.35 ¾ a bushel.
Fallout from the report was felt in Paris too, where March wheat ended down E4.25, or 3.2%, at E129.50 a tonne, the biggest percentage fall for a spot contract in nearly six months.
In London, March wheat finished £1.65 lower at £106.75 a tonne.