The changes of Australia's wheat harvest meeting, or exceeding, highball official forecasts rose after the top grain state revealed a record grains harvest, way ahead of initial expectations.

CBH Group, the crop handler for Western Australia, which typically produces more than one-third of the national wheat harvest, said that its grain receivals had narrowly topped the eight-year old record of 14.7m tonnes.

And, with another 200,000 tonnes or so to come, the total looked like reaching 14.9m tonnes, way ahead of initial forecasts of a 13.5m-tonne crop.

"It is a great achievement to break the record," Colin Tutt, CBH general manager operations, said, noting that the increase in volumes, more than 80% above those of last season's drought-affected harvest, had come in the face of a rain-affected harvest.

"We have seen significant rain delays, quality issues requiring extensive use of [Hagberg] galling number machines, bins filling and closing, and challenges in moving grain to port."

Market doubts

The upgrade follows widespread doubts that Australia's wheat harvest will hit the record 28.3m tonnes that officials at Abares, the country's crop bureau, have forecast.

These ideas were given weight last month by a forecast from farm officials in New South Wales, the country's second-ranked grains producing state, that its harvest would hit 7.35m tonnes, nearly 1m tonnes lower than the Abares figure.

However, in South Australia, farm officials on Friday nudged higher by 94,000 tonnes, to 4.24m tonnes, their forecast for state wheat output, saying that "despite below-average growing season rainfall, most growers have reported generally good yields, above the long-term average".

The upgrade put their forecast in line with that of Abares.

1m tonnes ahead?

And the Western Australia number appears to signal a state crop far higher than the 10.1m tonnes that Abares is counting on.

CBH works on a rule of thumb of 75-80% wheat in the harvest, a spokesperson told Agrimoney.com, implying Western Australia should be on for production of the grain of more than 11m tonnes.

The harvest supported the decision by state and federal governments to invest Aus$350m in the grain transport network, and CBH's purchase of Aus$175m of rolling stock, Mr Tutt added.

"The need for improved rail transport has never been more important."

Abares is forecasting Australian wheat exports at a record 21.6m tonnes in 2011-12.