World corn production will set a record by a distance next season,
lifted by a sharp rebound in the US, and sufficient to foster a strong
rebuilding of inventories, the International Grains Council said.
The intergovernmental group, in its first estimate for the 2013-14
world corn harvest, forecast a rise in production of 9% to 927m tonnes.
The recovery - of a historically large but not
unprecedented rate - will be led by the US, for which output was seen rising by "as
much as 30%", sufficient to take it to a record high well above 350m tonnes,
equivalent to about 14.0bn bushels.
"Assuming normal weather, US production is projected to
rebound sharply," the IGC said.
The estimate for the US revival
is smaller than the 35% rebound forecast by the US Department of Agriculture,
but above estimates from some private forecasters.
Lanworth, the analysis group, on Wednesday forecast the US corn
crop rising by 27% to 13.64bn bushels.
'Inventories to rise'
The IGC said that world consumption in 2013-14 was "also
likely to recover from this year's unusual decline", which was forced by a drop
in global corn production prompted by drought in the US and Argentina.
"But stocks could still rise in by 19% from the 16-year low
forecast for end 2012-13."
At roughly 135m tonnes, inventories would close the season
at a four-year high.
Signally, stocks in leading exporting countries, a metric particularly
closely watched by investors, will rebuild to their highest in eight years, the
Inventories in exporting countries, as forming the basis for
world trade, are viewed as having a particularly large impact on global pricing
'Little room to
The forecasts came as the council, in a monthly briefing,
made minor adjustments to its estimates for world grain supply and demand in
2012-13, trimming 1m tonnes from its estimate for inventories at the close of
For 2013-14, the IGC lifted by 1m tonnes to 683m tonnes its forecast for the world wheat crop in 2013-14, a rise of 4% year on year.
World consumption was seen rising at a slightly slower pace, allowing world stocks to increase by 4m tonnes to 182m tonnes.
stuck by an estimate of a 4% rise in
output, but said "a recovery in global use will leave little room to rebuild