Global wheat production will fall for a third successive season in 2010-11, ending a trend of rising grain inventories, the International Grains Council has said.
A decline in plantings, coupled with a return to average yields after two seasons of high productivity, will cut wheat harvest by 23m tonnes to 645m tonnes.
The decline is equivalent to the production of Canada or Ukraine, but is only expected to cause a "minor decline" in wheat stocks from the multi-year high of 191m tonnes at which they are set to end 2009-10.
A slide in corn stocks was the main reason behind a forecast of a fall in global grain inventories overall in 2010-11, which the IGC failed to enumerate.
'Stocks to recede'
"Improved economic activity should boost demand," the IGC said in a statement following a council meeting in London.
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Rise and fall of global wheat production (year end)
2010-11: 645m tonnes
2009-10: 668m tonnes
2008-09: 687m tonnes
2007-08: 609m tonnes
2006-07: 598m tonnes
Source: IGC |
"Feed demand was expected to increase, although this would be affected by the increased use of industrial co-products such as distiller's dried grains, as well as oilseed meals.
"Global stocks were projected to recede".
World grain inventories have not declined since 2006-07, being raised first by a jump in corn production and, over the last two years, by rich wheat harvests too.
Sowings slip
The IGC's 2010-11 production forecast is below a projection from Rabobank last week of a 657.5m-tonne crop.
Rabobank also foresaw stocks continuing to rise next season.
However, both organisations have concurred over a small drop in plantings, and over relatively weak hopes for Black Sea crops.
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