Turnaround Tuesday? It turned out to be more  a twisted and tangled one.

The idea of the session proving a positive one, reversing a strong tendency in the last session as often happens by lore in Chicago on the second day of the week, was replaced by swings between positive and negative ground which looked like ending in bears' favour – until a revival in the dying deals.

Chicago wheat, which had stood more than 1% lower with minutes of trading to go, recovered to close down a modest 0.5% at \$8.86 ½ a bushel, with corn showing a small revival to recoup nearly all its losses, and soybeans nudging higher to settle in positive territory.

Russian prices soar

Did investors get a sniff of the Egyptian wheat tender announced after Chicago closed?

After all, US grain looks to have a better chance in this one than previous tenders from the world's top wheat-importing country, given the retreat of Russia from the scene.

FCStone noted the "lack of former Soviet Union offers from November onwards" in wheat, an observation echoed by rival broker US Commodities which said that "wheat supplies continue to shrink in the Black Sea region.

"Very limited exportable supplies remain in the Ukraine. Nothing is being offered out of Russian currently."

In fact, the drought hit to the Russian harvest has sent prices of export-grade wheat to \$340 a tonne – the highest since the collapse of the Soviet Union more than two decades ago, according to Ikar, the Moscow-based Institute for Agricultural Market Studies.

'Good chances of rain'

Certainly, the idea of export demand (even potentially eventually from the UK, if biscuit makers can't scramble up sufficient domestic supplies) was something of an antidote to the big negative floating around for wheat prices on Tuesday – of rain to refresh dry US soils waiting for plantings of winter crop.

There is an issue, with Rabobank saying 40% of area earmarked for US hard red winter wheat plantings received less than half average rainfall in the month to September 20, posing "a risk to the establishment of the crop".

But weather models continue "to point to good chances of rain in the southern Plains in the next three-to-four days and that has pressured wheat contracts", especially July ones, Darrell Holaday at Country Futures said.

'Couple of fresh tenders'

Nonetheless, worries remain about dryness in Australia, where market talk is now of a crop below the 20m-tonne estimate from Australia & New Zealand Bank which surprised investors a couple of weeks ago.

"There is still a lot of concern about Australian wheat crop with private estimates now moving below 20m tonnes," Mr Holaday said.

And, back to demand, grain traders at a major European commodities house noted "a couple of fresh tenders on the horizon from Algeria and Morocco both of which are normally heavy buyers of French wheat".

French wheat for November indeed closed up 0.3% at E261.25 a tonne, amid high hopes too of victory in the Egyptian tender, the results of which will be unveiled on Wednesday.

London feed wheat, under some pressure from talk of potential substitution by Ukraine corn, edged 0.3% lower to £204.10 a tonne for November delivery.

More harvest pressure... 

For row crops, there was the all-pervading harvest pressure to negotiate.

USDA data overnight highlighted that, as Richard Feltes at RJ O'Brien noted, there is "far more US harvest ahead than over, with nearly ideal conditions next week after south Midwest rains trail off late week.

A quick harvest means a jump in supplies, and gives buyers some, temporary, power in negotiations with growers not wanting to keep crop in store.

But to lay against that negative was the fact that prices have already fallen by \$1 a bushel for corn and getting on for \$2 a bushel for soybeans.

'Deeply oversold'

Indeed, "the soybean and corn markets are deeply oversold and due for a technical bounce or stability", US Commodities said.

At Allendale, Steve Georgy said that while soybean futures charts "are still suggesting that we could see more down side, the \$16.00-a-bushel level may be tough to close below for now".

Furthermore, the "current supply and demand levels have the stock to use ratio at a point that beans could be undervalued", he added.

Even Rabobank, cutting forecasts for grain prices in 2013, said that values were poised for a short-term bounce, once harvest pressure is released.

'False impression of ample supplies'

And Oil World went further, coming in with the latest of a series of upbeat comments over soybean prices.

"We expect prices of soybeans and soymeal to be firm in the near term," Oil World said.

OK, there might appear to be soybeans around, but that was down to a strongly inverted futures curve, in which near-term contracts are worth far more than further away ones, and which had encouraged farmers to sell now, "giving the false impression of ample US soybean supplies".

In fact, "a severe supply deficit will develop on the US market in 2013 primarily in soybeans and soymeal," the German-based analysis group said, although it did add that "pronounced price pressure is expected to develop in January-to 2013 if the anticipated large South American crops materialise".

'End-user buying'

One more immediate negative point was a continued dearth of US crop export sales announced through the USDA's daily alerts system, although there is plenty of talk of demand around.

"A drop in soybean prices to six-week lows continues to uncover end-user buying," Benson Quinn Commodities said.

Chicago soybeans for November added 0.1% to \$16.11 ½ a bushel.

Chicago corn for December ended down 0.1% at \$7.43 ¾ a bushel.