So much for that end-of-quarter, end-of-month malaise oft talked about as a dampener on agricultural commodity markets.

OK, it was not such a star session for soft commodities, where New Year raw sugar for October edged 0.1% lower to 19.58 cents a pound, amid fears of huge deliveries against the contract, now in its expiry process.

These seem realised, with deliveries at more than 11,700 contracts, or approaching 600,000 tonnes, according to after-the-bell chatter.

The better-traded March lot managed a gain of 0.1% to 20.42 cents a pound.

And New York coffee eased 0.4% lower to 173.50 cents a pound for December delivery, with the market already having factored in Brazil's approval of an extra R\$600m (\$296m) for storing beans, a move expected to reduce the pressure to sell on the open market.

The mediocre performance reflected outside markets where stocks struggled too, amid fresh concerns over the eurozone, while the safe haven of the dollar gained 0.4%, so making dollar-denominated assets including many commodities less affordable to buyers in other currencies.

Falling inventories

But grains and, eventually, oilseeds were separated from macroeconomic factors by US crop inventory numbers which continued the tradition of surprises.

The data implied that usage over the three months since the previous data was stronger than had been forecast despite it being a period when prices were elevated, and in the case of corn hit a record high.

"Prices did not have the effect on demand that the market thought," Sal Gilbertie, president of exchange traded funds group Teucrium Trading, said.

New crop vs old

It has to be said that stocks data, as single data points, are difficult to analyse, and open to misinterpretation – for example, in confusing old crop with new in inventories.

Certainly, the data were taken as positive.

"At a minimum, this morning's data offers a great opportunity for these markets to post a correction of the recent break," Benson Quinn Commodities said.

And this was all before the International Grains Council came out with its own statistics which, in cutting forecasts for world wheat and corn harvests and inventories below USDA estimates, only fanned the flames.

'Reverse the downward trend'

Indeed, there was plenty of comment that Friday could turn out to be a bit of a watershed.

"Expect the recent pattern of fund selling in corn and wheat to be over for the time being," Benson Quinn said.

Rabobank said: "We expect today's report to reverse the downward trend across the grains and oilseeds complex which began in early September."

Corn prices "have the most upside as a result of this report, with higher prices in wheat also likely".

'Seasonal low is in'

At Country Futures, Darrell Holaday said: "These markets were ripe for this type of move. They were extremely oversold and the selling had become rampant in the last several days.

"A neutral corn number would have pushed the market higher.

"If corn closes strong today, up \$0.25 a bushel or more, then one would certainly feel that the seasonal low is in."

In fact, Chicago's December corn contract closed up the exchange maximum of \$0.40 a bushel at \$7.56 ¼ a bushel, a gain equivalent to 5.6%.

That was just ahead of wheat, which added 5.5% to \$9.02 ½ a bushel for December delivery.

"Bottom line—lots of action today for a crop report which we thought would be a yawner," Richard Feltes at RJ O'Brien said.

'Stocks appear bearish'

If there was a difficulty traders faced, it was in getting a handle on the soybean stocks data, which came in at 169m bushels, well above market expectations of a 131m-bushel figure, and on the face of it a price-negative figure.

However, the figure did factor in an upgrade for last year's harvest of 38m bushels.

"Soybean stocks appear bearish, but price downside will be limited as demand remains strong," Rabobank said.

"While the higher stock levels do not warrant prices pushing to new highs in the coming months, the report does confirm the historically tight supply situation."

'Very likely find value'

Benson Quinn Commodities took a more bullish spin, saying that "with corn and wheat performing well, the spec should be very careful pressing soybeans near these levels.

"The fund may have more soybeans to liquidate. But commercial/end users can very likely find value near these levels."

And Country Futures' Mr Holaday pointed out that "it is not hard to get through" the extra 30m bushels.

In fact, the USDA announced through its daily export alerts "that China bought 180,000 tonnes of US soybeans yesterday. There is 6.5m of the 30m bushels".

Soybeans, while falling strongly early on, recovered to close 1.9% higher at \$16.01 a bushel.