Not since June have buyers been able to purchase soybean futures for a figure beginning with \$14.

They could again on Monday, as weak export data spurred more sales from investors whose net long position in Chicago soybean futures and options remains relatively large, at nearly 177,000 contracts for the speculative, or "managed money", according to latest regulatory data.

"The general feel in the ag sector is that corn and soybeans are still trading like markets that simply have too much speculative length," Brian Henry at Benson Quinn Commodities said.

For corn, speculators' net long position is also a relatively strong 260,000 contracts.

Mr Henry added: "These markets may have value near these levels, but the commercial/end user has not had to shift away from securing coverage on their own terms," as funds sells turn the market in buyers' favour.

Weak import data

The soybean export fears relate to data on Friday showing sales to foreign buyers at 500,000 tonnes in the latest week.

Sure, this is still well on pace to meet revised US targets for shipments in 2012-13, reaching nearly 70% of the full-year total less than two months in.

The data were also for a week when China, the top soybean importer, was on holiday. And there have been plenty of rumours around of fresh Chinese buying of US supplies, with talk of purchases of a dozen cargoes or more.

However, the market has often heard this kind of speculation before, only to find it unconfirmed, or confirmed only in smaller sizes than rumour suggested.

"There is lots of talk about China buying beans on this break - we'll see if that happened in the next export sales updates," Mike Mawdsley at US broker Market 1 said.

Chinese imports rise

In fact, actual Chinese soybean imports reached 5.0m tonnes last month, a 12.4% rise on the August figure, weekend data showed, part of a slew of statistics released by China which might have appeared positive.

China's trade surplus for September exceeded forecasts, thanks to a 10% rise in exports year on year, signalling that foreign demand may not be as weak as many investors had believed.

China's inflation eased to 1.9% year on year in September, from 2.0% in August, potentially giving Chinese authorities more elbow room for monetary policy measures to boost the world's second largest economy.

However, the data failed to boost broader markets, leaving Asian shares a touch lower, including a 0.3% drop in Shanghai itself, while the safe haven of the dollar added 0.3%.

'Very strong system'

As an extra negative to soybean prices, much of South America is receiving rains needed for crop sowings

"Weather models continue show a very strong system which is approaching the north coast of Chile moving across central and eastern Argentina over the next three days," WxRisk.com said, with further heavy rains due in a week or so.

Sure, the rains do not look like reaching the central Brazilian areas which represent major soybean territory, and are proving too much for many Argentine farmers struggling to plant corn.

But any delay to corn seedings is expected to prompt many growers to switch to soybeans, which are generally later sown.

Chicago soybeans for November dropped to \$14.95 a bushel in early deals, the lowest since late June at a 1.8% decline on the day, before recovering half a cent as of 09:20 UK time (03:20 Chicago time).

Corn trade

That was a bigger drop that the 1.2% to \$7.44 a bushel in December corn, also sapped by soft US export data.

Indeed, any boost to the crop from Argentine growers switching from corn to soybeans was more than offset by the continuing hangover from Friday' data showing 4,200 tonnes of US corn export sales in the latest week.

Indeed, there is talk of further US imports of the grain, with east coast buyers said to have bought 600,000 tonnes of the grain from Argentina for November/December delivery.

"Whether rumour or fact, the steady decline in exports and likely increase in imports into the US will help alleviate some stress on the current balance sheet," Benson Quinn's Brian Henry said.

"The USDA currently has 75m bushels pegged for US imports in 2012-13. Seeing that number increased to 100m bushels seems feasible, but much beyond that may be difficult," if only for logistical reasons.

'Significant yield losses'

Wheat did the best of Chicago's big three, helped by weather fears for Australia expanded to include frost as a well as drought.

"Local crop concerns may again come to the fore once after much of New South Wales received its coldest consecutive October mornings in over 10 years over the weekend," Commonwealth Bank of Australia's Luke Mathews said.

"Frosts at this time of the year have the potential to cause significant yield losses to wheat crops."

'Rain outlook is poor'

Furthermore, "despite light showers over the weekend, inadequate October rainfall means Western Australia yield potentials have trended lower over the past fortnight.

"The rain outlook is also poor."

Indeed, weather service WXRisk.com said that "the weather models continue to show a massive heat dome dominating all of central north central and north western Australia.

"The problem is that this features so huge it is force the jet stream well to the south and as result weather systems are bypassing south western and south eastern Australia.

"Over the next 10 days none of these areas even on the coast sees rainfall over half an inch."

Chicago wheat for December eased 0.3% to \$8.54 a bushel.

Quality fears

Among soft commodities, New York cotton continued its price revival, adding 0.1% to 71.45 cents a pound for December, despite worsened supply and demand fundamentals as suggested in last week's USDA Wasde crop report.

The department also indicated that "just 46% of the cotton harvested so far this season meets the delivery standards of the New York futures contract.

"This is well below the historical average of around 70%."

Back among oilseeds, Kuala Lumpur palm oil dropped 2.8% to 2,429 ringgit a tonne, as disappointment at Malaysia's move to rejig export taxes offset some better trade data.

Malaysian palm exports rose 13% in the first half of October, Intertek Testing Services said.