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Informa cuts crop guesses - but not by much
By Agrimoney.com - Published 04/11/2009

Informa Economics has cut its estimate for US corn and soybean production - but not by much, signalling that it believes the crops have suffered minimal damage from a delayed harvest and October frost.

Informa US crop estimates (change on last month)

Corn harvest: 13.064bn bushels (-63m bushels)

Soybean harvest: 3.333bn bushels (-50m bushels)

The analysis group trimmed its forecast for US the corn harvest by 63m bushels to 13.06bn bushels.

The estimate for soybeans was trimmed by 50m bushels to 3.333bn bushels.

Many analysts have forecast losses of 100m-200m bushels for a harvest which is the slowest since records began in 1985 thanks to rain both in the spring, which delayed planting, and in recent weeks, which has hampered field work.

'Good indicator' 

The Informa data, which will be followed by forecasts from FC Stone later on Wednesday, is viewed by many investors as a reliable indicator of Washington thinking.

USDA crop estimates, as of October

Corn harvest: 13.018bn bushels

Soybean harvest: 3.250bn bushels

The US Department of Agriculture will on Tuesday release its next monthly global crop supply and demand report, which are seen as highlights of the commodities calendar.

"Historically, Informa has been very close to the USDA," Iowa broker US Commodities said.

"In the last seven years… Informa has been within 20m bushels of the USDA November estimate [for soybeans]. The bottom line is that the trade should respect Informa's numbers."

Informa's estimates leave it more optimistic on both corn and soybean than the USDA, whose latest forecasts were made nearly a month ago, before harvest delays and frost kicked in.
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