Russia and Ukraine keep Black Sea states on a roll

Agrimoney.com - http://www.agrimoney.com/news/news.php?id=982

Russia and Ukraine keep Black Sea states on a roll
By Agrimoney.com - Published 12/11/2009

Ukraine grain bosses have raised harvest hopes, and Russia scooped an Egyptian wheat tender, in yet further bright news for the Black Sea grain states.

Volodymyr Klymenko, the director of the Ukrainian Grain Association (UZA), pegged the country's harvest at 48m tonnes.

The figure trumped a 47m tonne-estimate last week by Yuri Luzan, Ukraine's deputy farm minister, which was itself a rise of 3m tonnes on the previous official forecast.

Mr Klymenko's comments came shortly before Egypt revealed it had chosen Russia to provide all of a 295,000-tonne wheat tender.

Egypt, the world's biggest wheat importer, bought the grain at \$191.37 a tonne through merchants Glencore, Nidera and Venus.

'Price leader'

The news continues a good week for the Black Sea grain nations, which also include Kazakhstan.

Egypt wheat tender results

Nov 12: 295,000 Russian (\$191.37)

Nov 5: 60,000 French (\$195), 60,000 Russian (\$189.50)

Oct 15: 180,000 French (\$189.50)

Sept 29: 150,000 Russian (\$170-170.25)

Sept 15: 240,000 Russian (\$166)

Figures: tonnes (price per tonne)

Since Mr Luzan's lifted hopes for Ukraine's crop last Friday, Kazahkstan has raised its export forecast, Russia has set course for a forecast-beating harvest and Washington singled out the region for its growing competitiveness.

"Russia has become the price leader in export markets, with abundant supplies of its low-priced bread wheat and is investing in its export infrastructure, expanding capacity and efficiency," the US Department of Agriculture said in a report on Tuesday.

"Ukraine's competitive advantage is a weak currency and reduced port fees that should stimulate exports."

Export hopes

The UZA's Mr Klymenko added that he expected Ukraine's grain exports to hit 20m tonnes in 2009-10 a figure in line with the government forecast, if 1m tonnes ahead of the projection by UkrAgroConsult, the Kiev-based analysis group .

UZA Ukraine grain export forecasts, 2009-10 (year-on-year change)

Wheat: 10.0m tonnes (-2.6m tonnes)

Barley: 6.0m tonnes (-300,000 tonnes)

Corn: 4.0m tonnes (-1.5m tonnes)

Source: Reuters

In the July-to-October period, the first four months of the marketing year, shipments hit 9.14m tonnes, 320,000 tonnes higher than in the same period a year before.

However, the pace has flagged this month, with Black Sea docks reporting shipments of 506,500 tonnes in the first nine days of November, 47,300 tonnes lower than a year before, according to UkrAgroConsult.