RSS
Twitter
Linked In
News In
News
Linked In
RSS
https://twitter.com/Agrimoney
http://www.newsnow.co.uk/h/Industry+Sectors/Agriculture

You are viewing 1 of your 2 complimentary articles.

Register now to receive full access.

Already registered?

Login | Join us now

Aussie wheat prices tumble as harvest fears ease

Twitter Linkedin eCard

Australian wheat prices extended a sharp decline amid ideas that an official update next week to the domestic harvest estimate will prove larger than had been feared, with rains improving hopes for western crops.

East coast wheat futures for January delivery closed at Aus$282.00 a tonne on Friday, down 5.0% in three sessions, far underperforming Chicago wheat, the world benchmark, down less than 0.5% over the same period.

Luke Mathews, at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said that the drop reflects in part "profit taking from basis traders", but also "forecasts for modest rainfall" the seven-to-14 day outlook in New South Wales, where dryness has reduced crop expectations.

Indeed, fears have reduced that Abares, the official commodities bureau, will on Tuesday when it reveals fresh crop forecasts downgrade its 25.4m-tonne estimate of the wheat crop by the figure up "up to 2.5m tonnes" that Rabobank forecast last week.

'Last cruel joke'

Latest expectations for the crop have been more upbeat, with Lanworth on Tuesday, while downgrading its wheat harvest forecast "on the basis of frost/freeze damage and historically low August precipitation in Queensland and northern New South Wales", pegging the crop at 24.9m tonnes.

"Current soil moisture levels are sufficiently high to prevent extreme drought losses without a turn to unprecedented dry weather, and short-term weather forecasts indicate wet and warm conditions into mid-September in all states," the consultancy said.

Separately, Pentag Nidera forecast the Australian wheat crop, the southern hemisphere's largest, at "close to" 25m tonnes, "despite the regional concerns" in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales.

Dry and hot weather in this area had exacerbated losses from "winter's last cruel joke" - a frost that represented had probably cost "upwards of 500,000 tonnes of wheat and barley and potentially upwards of 100,000 tonnes for chickpeas".

However, "we are not talking a national crop disaster", the Queensland-based trading house added.

'Very good shape'

Most cropping areas in southern New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia "continue to hold good potential – and the forecast rain in September and October will be welcome if it falls," Pentag Nidera said.

"West Australian conditions have improved through July and August, with the south west in very good shape."

Indeed, CBH Group, which handles the vast majority of the Western Australian cereals harvest, on Wednesday raised to 10m-10.6m tonnes, from 9m tonnes, its forecast for its receivals of grains overall in 2013-14.

This figure, which excludes some 1m tonnes expected to be delivered to rival handlers, will include some 6.5m tonnes of wheat.

By Agrimoney.com

Twitter Linkedin eCard
Related Stories

Funds renew ag selling wave - leaving them open to 'precarious position' on soy

... and potentially leaving them vulnerable to short-covering drives in the likes of wheat, coffee and sugar too. Still, in cotton...

Can wheat prices in 2018 rise for a second successive year?

... for the first time since 2007? Prices remain low enough to put pressure on production prospects. But will it prove sufficient to allow the market to tighten? Top commentators give their views

Brokers enter 2018 upbeat on ag market, lifting price hopes

The market is expected to perform far better this year than in 2017, FocusEconomics says, flagging price upgrades in a range of contracts - notably wool

Hedge fund position in numbers, for week to January 16

Markets extra lists the latest official data on hedge fund positions in ag commodity derivatives, and how they have changed week on week
Home | About | RSS | Commodities | Companies | Markets | Legal disclaimer | Privacy policy | Contact

Our Brands: Comtell | Feedinfo | FGInsight

© Agrimoney.com 2017

Agrimoney.com and Agrimoney are trademarks of Agrimoney Ltd
Agrimoney is part of the Briefing Media group
Agrimoney Ltd is registered in England & Wales. Registered number: 09239069