RSS
Twitter
Linked In
News In

You are viewing 1 of your 2 complimentary articles.

Register now to receive full access.

Already registered?

Login | Join us now

Trump's victory - what will it bring for farming and investors?

Twitter Linkedin

Trump's victory - what will it bring for farming and investors?

Is Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election a setback for investors and agriculture, or will it bring opportunity?Leading commentators give their thoughts.

Agritel

"The first reaction of financial markets has been strong with a sharp decline of the dollar and stock markets.

"Volatility will be back today on financial and currencies markets and will impact agricultural commodities.

"A lasting decline of the green back would offer a gain of competitiveness for US origins."

Societe Generale

"Markets are swooning from uncertainty. Vix [a volatility index, and the so-called gauge of fear] could reach 25-30% level and stay there for a while.

"The odds of a December rate hike have fallen appreciably, a support to global risk assets. The Fed is caught between the data (favourable) and the markets/Trump which are uncertain.

"Next to watch is Trump's selection for key cabinet positions. These choices may be calming or may invoke more concern."

After inauguration day on January 20 "Tax cuts could be a more immediate benefit. Protectionist trade policies are likely to be less substantial but will stretch over a longer period of time."

Mark Haefele, global chief investment officer, UBS

"The market reaction to the outcome will come in two stages.

"A reflexive flight to safety has already occurred, with Treasury bond prices rising. The US dollar has declined around 1% on a trade-weighted basis, while safe-haven currencies like the Japanese yen, up 2.9%, rallied against dollar. And gold also climbed 3.6%.

"While these first-round effects are certainly disconcerting, we expect the US equity market to recover over the medium term.

"For fixed income markets, we believe the initial rally in Treasuries will be relatively short lived.

"Longer term, Trump has promised tax cuts without offsetting expenditure reductions. A deteriorating fiscal outlook could push government borrowing costs higher."

Trevor Greetham, head of multi asset, Royal London Asset Management

"Here we go again! People who lived through the UK Brexit referendum were treated to an eerie re-run last night as America elected Donald Trump president against the expectations of pollsters, book makers and investors.

Markets don't like uncertainty and Donald Trump is an unknown quantity as far as US economic policy is concerned.

Much of what we do know, about his protectionist anti-trade policies for example, isn't positive but the US political system includes many checks and balances and the choice of President is unlikely to impact global markets or the world economy for long.

There is also a silver lining for financial assets that a surge in volatility may make a December Fed rate hike less likely. If Brexit provides a roadmap for investors, stock prices could be making new highs again by year end."

Fidelity International

"It is widely assumed that the Republicans are more pro-market/pro-business than the Democrats due to their advocacy of lower taxes and less regulatory intervention.

Yet research from Fidelity International, indicates that the US stock market has typically performed better under Democratic presidencies.

"Since 1929, Democratic presidencies have delivered annualised stock market returns of 14.7%, versus 5.4% for Republican presidencies. US equity returns during every Democratic presidency since 1929 have been positive.

Even when the Herbert Hoover presidency (March 1929-March 1933) – which coincided with the Great Depression – is excluded, the Republican annualised average return of 9.2% is still well below the Democrats' 14.7%."

Nick Penney, senior trader, Sucden Financial

As regards the sugar market, with the weaker dollar we were expecting a bounce this morning.

The opposite was the case as the market dropped over 50 points on the opening with March NY trading almost to the 100 day average running at 21.21.

It almost as if some Fund/large speculator just wanted to liquidate and ask questions later.

It is still early to "make a call" on sugar as many players are still to arrive at their desks.

Predictions are hard but we are comforted by the fact that we cannot possibly get it as wrong as pollsters and pundits in the US!"

Commerzbank

"Gold initially reacted as expected to the election victory of the Republican candidate Donald Trump and first surged by 5%, i.e. a good $60, to just shy of $1,340 per troy ounce.

It has meanwhile shed half of these gains again, however. Moving in tandem with a recovering US dollar, which following an initial shock reaction is likewise gaining ground again, gold has dropped back to around $1,300 per troy ounce.

We find this somewhat surprising given that Trump's election win means great uncertainty, both economically and politically.

After all, there is the risk of trade conflicts with a number of countries under Trump, who took a highly protectionist stance during his election campaign."

Legal General Investment Management

"Decisions made by Donald Trump over the coming days and weeks are likely to narrow down the many potential paths his policies could take.

Comments clarifying his stance on the Fed and Janet Yellen's position will also be important to markets. Apart from undermining the Fed's independence, a sudden change in Fed leadership would create unwelcome uncertainty.

Many investors would assume any replacement is unlikely to be more dovish than Janet Yellen.However, given Trump's lack of political experience and track record of ill-advised comments and unexpected policy announcements, the scope for initial errors seems greater and the speed of how he adapts to the role therefore becomes more important."

AHDB

"US May 2017 grain futures have dropped a little in this morning's trading, seen partly as an immediate-term reaction to Donald Trump's election as US president this morning.

Chicago May 2017 wheat futures have lost around $2t as at 11:30 GMT compared to yesterday's close.

The initial market reaction for grain prices has not been particularly large. However, longer term, and depending on policy direction, this looks likely to be a source of increased uncertainty and volatility for all commodity and currency markets.

Allendale

"Grain markets are lower as investors react to the US Presidential Election results.

Extreme trading ranges in outside markets overnight as the results became clearer. Investors are taking a risk-off approach as the results have stunned the world and the pollsters got it wrong."

By Agrimoney.com

Twitter Linkedin
Related Stories

Evening markets: South American double whammy brings ags back down to earth

Ags lose early gains, undermined by a tumble in Brazil’s real, and falling rain in Argentina. Still, wheat futures remain in positive territory

Wheat leads respectable week for US crop exports

Sales of hard wheat - spring and winter - prove particularly strong. Cotton export data return to type - ie with strong sales but...

'Moribund atmosphere' in EU wheat market to extend into 2018-19

... says Strategie Grains, foreseeing another decent harvest, yet little chance of an export revival against tough Russian competition

Can cotton prices extend their rally?

History suggests futures will not stay long in the 70s cents a pound. So which way will they trend?
Home | About | RSS | Commodities | Companies | Markets | Legal disclaimer | Privacy policy | Contact

Our Brands: Comtell | Feedinfo | FGInsight

© Agrimoney.com 2017

Agrimoney.com and Agrimoney are trademarks of Agrimoney Ltd
Agrimoney is part of the Briefing Media group
Agrimoney Ltd is registered in England & Wales. Registered number: 09239069