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Paris wheat prices - will they underperform US ones again?

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Paris wheat prices typically move largely in line with those in Chicago, with some allowance for the dollar: euro exchange rate.

Last year, despite a dollar: euro exchange rate which ended the year pretty much where it started, Paris wheat underperformed by two percentage points, feeling the pressure from the return of Russia, a fiercely competitive exporter, to shipments.

Russian exports were halted for 11 months until July, after last year's drought-devastated harvest.

Overall Paris prices lost nearly 20% last year. Will they perform better in 2012?

Not many of the big banks give separate forecasts on Paris wheat. But we detail a couple that do.

(For forecasts for Chicago prices, click here.)

Rabobank

"Wheat prices in the US are expected to be more a function of the domestic corn market and less affected by the global wheat dynamics than prices elsewhere.

Rabobank forecasts for Paris wheat price, 2012

Q1: E162 a tonne

Q2: E175 a tonne

Q3: E172 a tonne

Q4: E166 a tonne

Forecasts for average price, near-term contract, during the quarter

"European, and most notably French, wheat exports slumped early in the 2011-12 season as Black Sea region exports dominated market share into the key North African importer destinations.

"We expect European Union wheat stocks to climb 13% year on year, likely bounding [Paris] futures prices well below the highs of 011, and above the lows of 2009."

Commerzbank

Commerzbank forecasts for Paris wheat price, 2012

Q1: E180 a tonne

Q2: E190 a tonne

Q3: E190 a tonne

Q4: E200 a tonne

Forecasts for average price, near-term contract, during the quarter

Year average: E190 a bushel, (E215 a tonne in 2011)

By Agrimoney.com

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