US cotton 2020-21

Agrimoney’s round-up of estimates for the US 2020-21 cotton balance sheet.

Estimates for 2019-20 can be found here

Forecasts for US cotton production, exports 2020-21 (in bales)
Analyst	Plantings	Yield	Production	Consumption	Exports	Carryout stocks	Date of forecast
Cotton Outlook*			14.702	2.296			March 26 2021
Rabobank					15.8	3.85	March 25 2021
Fitch Solutions			14.95				March 18 2021
USDA Wasde	12.09	811	14.7	2.3	15.5	4.2	March 9 2021
Cotton Outlook*			14.954	2.402			February 26 2021
USDA Outlook Forum			15.0	2.4	15.5	4.3	February 19 2021
USDA Wasde	12.09	825	14.95	2.4	15.5	4.3	February 9 2021
Cotton Outlook*			14.954	2.402			January 29 2021
USDA Wasde	12.12	825	14.95	2.4	15.25	4.6	January 12 2021
Cotton Outlook*			15.946	2.41			December 31 2020
USDA Wasde	12.12	850	15.95	2.5	15.0	5.7	December 10 2020
Cotton Outlook*			16.85	2.41			November 27 2020
Fitch Solutions			17.114				November 24 2020
USDA Wasde	12.12	911	17.09	2.5	14.6	7.2	November 9 2020
Cotton Outlook*			16.85	2.41			October 30 2020
Rabobank			16.7		15.0	"down 12% year on year"	October 20 2020
USDA Wasde	12.12	909	17.05	2.5	14.6	7.2	October 9 2020
Cotton Outlook*			16.85	2.41			September 25 2020
Rabobank			"sub-17"				September 23 2020
USDA Wasde	12.12	910	17.06	2.5	14.6	7.2	September 11 2020
Cotton Outlook*			18.08	2.64			August 28 2020
USDA Wasde	12.19	938	18.08	2.7	15	7.6	August 12 2020
Cotton Outlook*			17.22	2.64			July 31 2020
USDA Wasde	12.19**	820	17.5	2.5	15	6.8	July 10 2020
ICAC		924	19.52	2.80	13.59	11.75	July 1 2020
Cotton Outlook*			18.31	2.75			June 26 2020
USDA Wasde	13.70	924	19.5	2.8	16.00	8	June 11 2020
Cotton Outlook*			18.31	2.99			May 29 2020
Fitch Solutions			19.01				May 14 2020
IEG Vantage	12.798						May 14 2020
USDA Wasde	13.7	924	19.5	2.90	16.00	7.70	May 12 2020
Bloomberg poll pre-Wasde			20.36		15.64	7.74	May 7 2020
Rose Commodity Group	12.593	849	18.94	3.100	16.500	5.092	May 7 2020
Nutrien	12.5
JP Morgan	12.0						May 4 2020
Cotton Outlook*			18.50	3.00			May 1 2020
Rabobank	13.0		20+				April 29 2020
USDA Prospective Plantings	13.7						March 31 2020
JP Morgan	12						March 30 2020
Rabobank	"down over 10% year on year"		"below 18"		16	4.2	March 27 2020
Cotton Outlook*			18.50	3.00			March 27 2020
Bloomberg poll pre-USDA report	12.4						March 25 2020
Cotton Outlook*			20.3	2.99			March 2 2020
Rabobank	12.8		"between 19.4m and 20.2m"				February 27 2020
USDA	12.5						February 21 2020
National Cotton Council	13.0	848	19.8	2.85	16.4	5.9	February 15 2020
USDA baseline	11.8	845	18.2	3.00	15.45	6.45	February 15 2020
Data in million bales, except plantings in million acres, and yield in pounds per acre = translated from tonnes * = area planted