World cocoa 2020-21

Agrimoney’s Markets Extra is collating estimates for where leading commentators estimate global cocoa supply and demand balances for 2020-21.

Commentators usually use an October-to-September marketing year.

Estimates for 2019-20 are available here.

Forecasts for world cocoa supply balance, 2020-21
Analyst	Production (m tonnes)	Consumption (m tonnes)	Balance (tonnes)	Carryout stocks (m tonnes)	Stocks-to-use (%)	Date
ICCO	4.843	4.693	+102,000	1.832	39.0	March 2 2021
Foresight	4.780	4.658		1.852	40.0	March 2 2021
ICCO	4.843	4.693	+102,000	1.832	39.0	February 26 2021
Rabobank		"up around 100,000 tonnes year on year"				February 24 2021
ICCO			"About +100,000"			February 17 2021
Reuters poll			+218,000			February 8 2021
Foresight	4.740	4.675	+65,000	1.806	39	January 5 2021
Marex Spectron			+76,000			December 1 2020
Fitch Solutions	4.95	4.96	-10,000		34.3	November 30 2020
Rabobank	4.845	4.689	+155,700	1.929	41	November 23 2020
Goldman Sachs		+3% year on year				November 18 2020
Foresight	4.848	4.725		1.806	38	November 3 2020
Fitch Solutions	4.99	4.95	+50,000		36.4	August 21 2020
Reuters poll			+220,000			August 3 2020
Rabobank	"up 2-3% year on year"	"up 1.6% year on year"				July 29 2020
Barry Callebaut			+317,000			July 17 2020
Rabobank	"likely in line with 2019-20 but not higher"	"up 3.2% year on year"				May 28 2020
Fitch Solutions	5.01	5.01	-		35.2	May 20 2020
Fitch Solutions	5.05	5.00	+50,000		37.7	February 7 2020