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World cocoa 2020-21

Agrimoney’s Markets Extra is collating estimates for where leading commentators estimate global cocoa supply and demand balances for 2020-21.

 

Commentators usually use an October-to-September marketing year.

 

Estimates for 2019-20 are available here.

 

Forecasts for world cocoa supply balance, 2020-21
Analyst Production (m tonnes)
Consumption (m tonnes)
Balance (tonnes)
Carryout stocks (m tonnes)
Stocks-to-use (%)
Date
ICCO 4.843 4.693

+102,000

1.832 39.0 March 2 2021
Foresight 4.780 4.658

 

1.852 40.0 March 2 2021
ICCO 4.843 4.693

+102,000

1.832 39.0 February 26 2021
Rabobank "up around 100,000 tonnes year on year"

 

February 24 2021
ICCO

"About +100,000"

February 17 2021
Reuters poll

+218,000

February 8 2021
Foresight 4.740 4.675

+65,000

1.806 39 January 5 2021
Marex Spectron

+76,000

December 1 2020
Fitch Solutions 4.95 4.96

-10,000

34.3 November 30 2020
Rabobank 4.845 4.689

+155,700

1.929 41 November 23 2020
Goldman Sachs +3% year on year November 18 2020
Foresight 4.848 4.725

 

1.806 38 November 3 2020
Fitch Solutions 4.99 4.95

+50,000

36.4 August 21 2020
Reuters poll +220,000 August 3 2020
Rabobank "up 2-3% year on year" "up 1.6% year on year" July 29 2020
Barry Callebaut +317,000 July 17 2020
Rabobank "likely in line with 2019-20 but not higher" "up 3.2% year on year" May 28 2020
Fitch Solutions 5.01 5.01 - 35.2 May 20 2020
Fitch Solutions 5.05 5.00 +50,000 37.7 February 7 2020

 

 

 

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