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World cotton 2020-21

Agrimoney’s Markets Extra is collating estimates for where leading commentators estimate global cotton supply and demand balances for 2020-21.

 

Commentators usually use an August-to-July marketing year.

 

Estimates for 2019-20 can be found by clicking here.

 

 

 

Forecasts for world cotton supply balance, 2020-21 (in bales)
Analyst Production (m bales)
Consumption (m bales)
Balance (m bales)
Carryout stocks (m bales) Price forecast**
Date of forecast
Cotton Outlook 110.414 114.153 -3.738 March 26 2021
Fitch Solutions 118.0 118.9 -0.9 79.98%* 87.0** March 18 2021
USDA Wasde 113.32 117.46 94.59 March 9 2021
Abares 111.6 112.5 97.3 80.0 March 2 2021
ICAC* 111.149 112.527 96.911 75.7 March 1 2021
Cotton Outlook 110.805 112.720 February 26 2021
Rabobank 113.1 February 24 2020
USDA Outlook Forum 114.1 117.2 95.7 February 19 2021
USDA Wasde 114.14 117.21 +0.14 95.74 February 9 2021
Cotton Outlook* 110.304 112.444 January 29 2021
USDA Wasde 112.87 115.73 +0.09 96.32 January 12 2021
Cotton Outlook* 110.157 111.650 December 31 2020
Abares* 113.446 111.608 100.585 73.0 December 1 2020
Cotton Outlook* 111.337 111.076 +0.261 November 27 2020
Fitch Solutions 118.70 117.20 +1.5 82.17% 70.0 November 24 2020
Rabobank 114.698 113.570 +1.899 101.488 November 23 2020
Goldman Sachs 116 "+12% year on year" November 18 2020
USDA Wasde 116.11 114.05 101.44 November 9 2020
ICAC* 114.4 112.1 69.3
November 2 2020
Cotton Outlook* 112.008 110.387 October 30 2020
USDA Wasde 116.27 114.21 101.13 October 9 2020
ICAC* 113.0 111.6 67.4
October 1 2020
Cotton Outlook* 112.66 107.64 September 25 2020
Abares 114.4
110.7
102.4
67.0
September 15 2020
USDA Wasde 117.53
113.05
104.91
September 11 2020
ICAC* 115.3 111.6 104.3 September 1 2020
Cotton Outlook* 113.06 108.11 August 28 2020
USDA Wasde 117.53
113.05
104.91
August 12 2020
ICAC* 113.91 109.77 August 3 2020
OECD-FAO 121.71 124.01 78.99 July 16 2020
USDA Wasde 116.25 114.29
102.77
July 10 2020
ICAC* 114.18
107.06
110.41 July 1 2020
Cotton Outlook* 112.92 108.34 June 26 2020
Abares* 116.7
112.1
101.0
63.0 June 16 2020
USDA Wasde 118.74
114.41
104.67
June 11 2020
ICAC* 115.37 109.08 106.18 58.8
June 1 2020
Cotton Outlook* 113.86 108.51 May 29 2020
Fitch Solutions 120.47
117.35
+3.13 May 14 2020
USDA Wasde 118.95
116.46
99.43 May 12 2020
ICAC* 115.1 106.4
109.4 56.9 May 1 2020
Cotton Outlook* 114.80 109.9 +0.490 May 1 2020
ICAC* 117.4 112.9 109.4 April 1 2020
Cotton Outlook* 116.11 110.767 +0.534 March 27 2020
Abares 124.00 125.38 -1.38 78.53 74.0 March 3 2020
ICAC* 119.3 120.3 82.9 March 2 2020
Cotton Outlook* 119.94 118.99 +0.950 March 2 2020
Rabobank 124 "+2% year on year" -0.7 February 27 2020
USDA 118.5 121.2 -4.9 79.4 February 21 2020
JP Morgan 121.526 125.585 -4.059 75.291 November 26 2020
Rabobank 123.888 124.461 -0.562 80.820 November 20 2020

* = data converted from tonnes. Calculated from change in year-end stocks

**= as measured by the Cotlook A index, in cents per pound

 

 

 

 

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