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World sugar 2018-19

Agrimoney’s Markets Extra is collating estimates for where leading commentators estimate global sugar supply and demand balances for 2018-19.

 

Note that it is tricky to make close comparisons between estimates, as different analysts can use different crop years (eg, the International Sugar Organization sticks strictly by an October-to-September year, while many other groups use an amalgam of local crop years).

 

Furthermore, some commentators quote tonnage on a raw sugar basis, other on a white sugar basis, and others use so-called "tel quel" - or "as it comes".

 

Note also that for many analyses, the change of stocks is not just derived from the gap between production and consumption, with some commentators, for instance, factoring in an element for losses.

 

Forecasts for 2019-20 can be found by clicking here.

 

Forecasts for world sugar supply balance, 2018-19
Production (m tonnes)
Consumption (m tonnes)
Balance (m tonnes)
Carryout stocks (m tonnes)
Date
Czarnikow 168.06**

 

February 12 2021
Rabobank 188.7 181.9

+5.0

91.8 November 23 2020
USDA 179.347 172.37 +6.97 53.232 November 23 2020
Foresight 174.26 170.5 -3.76 57.0 November 18 2020
Fitch Analytics 182 174 +7.90 54.0 September 29 2020
Czarnikow +5.3 May 7 2020
JP Morgan 188.150 184.083 3.780 100.324 May 1 2020
Abares 185 184 +1 83.5 March 3 2020
International Sugar Organization 175.018 173.788 +1.230 93.561 February 28 2020
Abares 184.5 183.84 +0.982 83.455 December 10 2019
International Sugar Organization 175.888 174.217 +1.671 95.089 November 26 2019
FO Licht 186.3 November 25 2019
Rabobank 187.8 185.7 +0.2 78.0 November 20 2019
Datagro -1.84 October 28 2019
Green Pool 188.275 184.117 +3.787 96.67 October 2 2019
Group Sopex +2.5 September 18 2019
Agroconsult +3.1 September 17 2019
Abares 186 185 +1.3* 83.5 September 17 2019
Rabobank +0.3 September 17 2019
ISO 176.118 174.398 +2.345 95.085 September 2 2019
Green Pool 188.415 184.136 +3.753 July 29 2019
Rabobank +0.6 June 18 2019
ISO 183.2 174.2 +8.11 June 10 2019
SocGen 183.0 176.2 +6.40 June 4 2019
Fitch Solutions 182 177 +4.96 May 29 2019
USDA 181.7 176.4 -2.57* May 23 2019
Datagro +0.48 May 15 2019
INTL FCStone -0.3 May 14 2019
FO Licht +0.4 May 8 2019
FO Licht 186.9 185.6 -0.2 April 8 2019
INTL FCStone -0.3 March 29 2019
S&P Global Platts +5.55 March 27 2019
Rabobank +1.1 March 20 2019
Sucden +0.5 March 13 2019
Abares 187 186 -0.4* 82.1 March 5 2019
ISO 178.682 178.041 +0.641 March 4 2019
Reuters poll +2.55 February 11 2019
Green Pool 188.47 184.84 +2.635 February 1 2019
JP Morgan 186.098 184.935 +0.163 January 28 2019
INTL FC Stone -0.7 January 17 2019
FO Licht 185.0 186.3 -1.7 December 20 2018
Rabobank 30 +0.5 December 19 2018
Abares 188 186 +2.0 December 10 2018
Green Pool 189.29 184.69 +3.598 November 28 2018
USDA 185.886 176.834 +1.321 November 20 2018
ISO 180.488 178.316 +2.172 November 15 2018
Rabobank +1.2 November 15 2018
INTL FC Stone -0.7 November 7 2018
Marex Spectron -1.05 November 2 2018
Datagro -1.58 October 29 2018
Datagro -0.710 October 22 2018
Abares 194 186 +8.1 September 18 2018
Rabobank +4.5 September 17 2018
Green Pool 190.97 185.23 +4.240 August 30 2018
Datagro +6.71 August 22 2018
ISO 185.215 178.468 +6.75 August 22 2018
Reuters poll (median) +6.00 August 2 2018
Informa +7.2 July 10 2018
FO Licht +7.225 June 29 2018
Green Pool 193.87 185.75 +6.623 June 29 2018
Abares 191 187 +4.2* June 19 2018
ISO 185.208 174.696 +"about 6" May 24 2018
S&P Global +12.39 May 2018
Datagro +7.56 May 9 2018
ISO growth of 1.6% +8.5 May 9 2018
Louis Dreyfus surplus of just under 2 May 9 2018
INTL FC Stone +7.2 May 8 2018
S&P Global Platts/Kingsman +12.59 May 8 2018
Green Pool 193.77 185.72 +6.55 May 3 2018
JP Morgan +3.8 April 30 2018
Datagro +7.6 April 24 2018
FO Licht 192.7 186.6 +5.0 April 9 2018
Rabobank +4.4 April 3 2018
Green Pool +5.947 March 26 2018
Societe Generale 181.322 175.823 +4.788 March 8 2018
Abares 186 186 +0.1* March 6 2018
Reuters poll +5.0 February 2 2018

*= derived from forecast change in inventories year on year

**= reported as for "2019"

 

 

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