Agrimoney’s Markets Extra is collating estimates for where leading commentators estimate global sugar supply and demand balances for 2021-22.
Note that it is tricky to make close comparisons between estimates, as different analysts can use different crop years (eg, the International Sugar Organization sticks strictly by an October-to-September year, while many other groups use an amalgam of local crop years).
Furthermore, some commentators quote tonnage on a raw sugar basis, other on a white sugar basis, and others use so-called "tel quel" - or "as it comes".
Note also that for many analyses, the change of stocks is not just derived from the gap between production and consumption, with some commentators, for instance, factoring in an element for losses.
Estimates for 2020-21 can be found by clicking here.
|Forecasts for world sugar supply balance, 2021-22|
||Stocks to use
|61.9||34.6%||March 31 2021|
|March 21 2021|
|89.9||48.0%||February 25 2021|
|February 1 2021|
|59.4||December 15 2020|
|93.2||November 23 2020|
|69.1||September 29 2020|
Balance figures do not always equate just to the difference between production and consumption, with some commentators, eg JP Morgan, making adjustments for other factors
All data in million tonnes except stocks to use