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World sugar 2021-22

Agrimoney’s Markets Extra is collating estimates for where leading commentators estimate global sugar supply and demand balances for 2021-22.


Note that it is tricky to make close comparisons between estimates, as different analysts can use different crop years (eg, the International Sugar Organization sticks strictly by an October-to-September year, while many other groups use an amalgam of local crop years).


Furthermore, some commentators quote tonnage on a raw sugar basis, other on a white sugar basis, and others use so-called "tel quel" - or "as it comes".


Note also that for many analyses, the change of stocks is not just derived from the gap between production and consumption, with some commentators, for instance, factoring in an element for losses.


Estimates for 2020-21 can be found by clicking here.


Forecasts for world sugar supply balance, 2021-22
Analyst Production
End stocks
Stocks to use
Fitch Solutions 187.0 179.0


61.9 34.6% March 31 2021


March 21 2021
Green Pool 192.430 187.355


89.9 48.0% February 25 2021
Reuters poll


February 1 2021
Fitch Analytics 189.0 179.0


59.4 December 15 2020
Rabobank 183.9 182.4


93.2 November 23 2020
Fitch Analytics 193.0 179.0


69.1 September 29 2020

Balance figures do not always equate just to the difference between production and consumption, with some commentators, eg JP Morgan, making adjustments for other factors


All data in million tonnes except stocks to use




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