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Headline Wasde data, and change from market estimates

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The Wasde was initially deemed somewhat supportive for corn futures, in cutting the estimate for US stocks at the close of 2017-18 by more than investors had expected, although prices retreated in late deals to end lower.

 

The figure for world inventories came in well ahead of market forecasts, reflected a higher figure for carry-in stocks, as well an upgrade of 890,000 tonnes to 215.89m tonnes in the estimate for China’s harvest.

 

For soybeans, for all the talk of late of dryness threatening Argentina’s crop, the production estimate for the country was kept at 57.0m tonnes.

 

The world wheat inventory forecast was swollen by more than investors had expected, reflecting improved estimates for Canadian and European Union harvests.

 

For cotton, the bigger-than-expected cut to the forecast for carry-out inventories from 2017-18 was down in part to a downgrade to the estimate for carry-in inventories, but also to the knock-on effects of downgraded Pakistan and India harvests.

 

Still, New York futures closed lower, with investors taking particular notice of US data, which came in less bullish than had been anticipated.

 

Corn

US stocks at close of 2017-18: 2.437bn bushels

Change on previous forecast: -50m bushels

Difference from market expectation: -41m bushels

 

World stocks at close of 2017-18: 204.08m tonnes

Change on previous forecast: +1.22m tonnes

Difference from market expectation: +1.36m tonnes

 

Cotton

US stocks at close of 2017-18: 5.80m bales

Change on previous forecast: -300,000 bales

Difference from market expectation: +100,000 bales

 

World stocks at close of 2017-18: 88.0m bales

Change on previous forecast: -2.88m bales

Difference from market expectation: -1.83m bales

 

 

Soybeans

US stocks at close of 2017-18: 445m bushels

Change on previous forecast: +20m bushels

Difference from market expectation: +7m bushels

 

World stocks at close of 2017-18: 98.32m tonnes

Change on previous forecast: +420,000 tonnes

Difference from market expectation: +500,000 tonnes

 

 

Wheat

US stocks at close of 2017-18: 960m bushels

Change on previous forecast: +25m bushels

Difference from market expectation: +22m bushels

 

World stocks at close of 2017-18: 268.42m tonnes

Change on previous forecast: +890,000 tonnes

Difference from market expectation: +1.35m tonnes

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