Markets Extra

Pro Farmer crop tour results - updated

Markets Extra21 Aug 2020by Markets Extra

The Pro Farmer crop tour has, so far, come up with some upbeat expectations as regards US crop yield prospects.

While an improvement on wetness-hampered results for 2019 was not such a surprise, the extent of findings above three-year average levels was not such a given.

The tour if viewed as one of the more accurate of the many Midwest crop tours.

USDA state yield estimates for 2020, and comparison with last year and 2017-19 averages, are included as a guide to what the market has been factoring in.

Pro Farmer crop tour estimates for corn yield
State	2020 tour estimate	2019 tour estimate	Three-year average tour estimate	2020 vs 2019	2020 vs average
Illinois	189.40	171.17	181.51	+10.7%	+4.3%
Indiana	179.84	161.46	171.67	+11.4%	+4.8%
Iowa	177.81	182.83	183.61	-2.7%	-3.2%
Minnesota	195.08	170.37	180.19	+14.5%	+8.3%
Nebraska	175.15	172.55	172.38	+1.5%	+1.6%
Ohio	167.69	154.35	166.18	+8.6%	+0.9%
South Dakota	179.24	154.08	160.02	+16.3%	+12.0%
Tour data in bushels per acre

Pro Farmer crop tour estimates for soybean pod count
State	2020 tour estimate	2019 tour estimate	Three-year average tour estimate	2020 vs 2019	2020 vs average
Illinois	1,247.38	997.68	1,185.79	+25.0%	+5.2%
Indiana	1,281.12	923.94	1,134.86	+38.7%	+12.9%
Iowa	1,146.30	1,106.91	1,136.27	+3.6%	+0.9%
Minnesota	1,085.84	965.31	1,025.25	+12.5%	+5.9%
Nebraska	1,297.93	1,210.83	1,213.64	+7.2%	+6.9%
Ohio	1,155.68	764.01	1,039.74	+51.3%	+11.2%
South Dakota	1,250.86	832.85	919.04	+50.2%	+36.1%
Tour data show pods per 3x3 feet square

USDA estimates for corn yield, as of August Wasde report
State	2020 estimate	2019 estimate	Three-year average estimate	2020 vs 2019	2020 vs average
Illinois	207	181	197.3	+14.4%	+4.9%
Indiana	188	169	179.3	+11.2%	+4.9%
Iowa	202	198	198.7	+2.0%	+1.7%
Minnesota	197	174	183.3	+13.2%	+7.5%
Nebraska	191	182	185.0	+4.9%	+3.2%
Ohio	175	164	176.0	+6.7%	-0.6%
South Dakota	167	145	150.0	+15.2%	+11.3%
US total	181.8	167.4	173.7	+8.6%	+4.7%
Yield data in bushels per acre

USDA estimates for soybean yield, as of August Wasde report
State	2020 estimate	2019 estimate	Three-year average estimate	2020 vs 2019	2020 vs average
Illinois	64	54	58.5	+18.5%	+9.4%
Indiana	61	51	54.2	+19.6%	+12.5%
Iowa	58	55	56.0	+5.5%	+3.6%
Minnesota	51	44.0	46.8	+15.9%	+8.9%
Nebraska	62	58.5	58.0	+6.0%	+6.9%
Ohio	58	49	51.5	+18.4%	+12.6%
South Dakota	50	42.5	43.5	+17.6%	+14.9%
US total	53.3	47.4	49.1	+12.4%	+8.6%
Yield data in bushels per acre

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