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Pro Farmer crop tour results - updated

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The Pro Farmer crop tour has, so far, come up with some upbeat expectations as regards US crop yield prospects.

 

While an improvement on wetness-hampered results for 2019 was not such a surprise, the extent of findings above three-year average levels was not such a given.

 

The tour if viewed as one of the more accurate of the many Midwest crop tours.

 

USDA state yield estimates for 2020, and comparison with last year and 2017-19 averages, are included as a guide to what the market has been factoring in.

 

 

Pro Farmer crop tour estimates for corn yield
State 2020 tour estimate 2019 tour estimate Three-year average tour estimate 2020 vs 2019 2020 vs average
Illinois 189.40 171.17 181.51 +10.7% +4.3%
Indiana 179.84 161.46 171.67 +11.4% +4.8%
Iowa 177.81 182.83 183.61 -2.7% -3.2%
Minnesota 195.08 170.37 180.19 +14.5% +8.3%
Nebraska 175.15 172.55 172.38 +1.5% +1.6%
Ohio 167.69 154.35 166.18 +8.6% +0.9%
South Dakota 179.24 154.08 160.02 +16.3% +12.0%
Tour data in bushels per acre

 

 

Pro Farmer crop tour estimates for soybean pod count
State 2020 tour estimate 2019 tour estimate Three-year average tour estimate 2020 vs 2019 2020 vs average
Illinois 1,247.38 997.68 1,185.79 +25.0% +5.2%
Indiana 1,281.12 923.94 1,134.86 +38.7% +12.9%
Iowa 1,146.30 1,106.91 1,136.27 +3.6% +0.9%
Minnesota 1,085.84 965.31 1,025.25 +12.5% +5.9%
Nebraska 1,297.93 1,210.83 1,213.64 +7.2% +6.9%
Ohio 1,155.68 764.01 1,039.74 +51.3% +11.2%
South Dakota 1,250.86 832.85 919.04 +50.2% +36.1%
Tour data show pods per 3x3 feet square

 

 

 

USDA estimates for corn yield, as of August Wasde report
State 2020 estimate 2019 estimate Three-year average estimate 2020 vs 2019 2020 vs average
Illinois 207 181 197.3 +14.4% +4.9%
Indiana 188 169 179.3 +11.2% +4.9%
Iowa 202 198 198.7 +2.0% +1.7%
Minnesota 197 174 183.3 +13.2% +7.5%
Nebraska 191 182 185.0 +4.9% +3.2%
Ohio 175 164 176.0 +6.7% -0.6%
South Dakota 167 145 150.0 +15.2% +11.3%
US total 181.8 167.4 173.7 +8.6% +4.7%
Yield data in bushels per acre

 

 

USDA estimates for soybean yield, as of August Wasde report
State 2020 estimate 2019 estimate Three-year average estimate 2020 vs 2019 2020 vs average
Illinois 64 54 58.5 +18.5% +9.4%
Indiana 61 51 54.2 +19.6% +12.5%
Iowa 58 55 56.0 +5.5% +3.6%
Minnesota 51 44.0 46.8 +15.9% +8.9%
Nebraska 62 58.5 58.0 +6.0% +6.9%
Ohio 58 49 51.5 +18.4% +12.6%
South Dakota 50 42.5 43.5 +17.6% +14.9%
US total 53.3 47.4 49.1 +12.4% +8.6%
Yield data in bushels per acre
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