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International Grains Council sees record global grain production for 2021


Including upgrades for wheat and corn, the International Grains Council (IGC) forecast for world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2020/21 has been raised to 2.224 billion metric tons (MT), an increase of 2% y/y (year-on-year).


Because of increased consumption, projected total grain carryover stocks at the end of 2020/21 are 2 million MT lower m/m, at 609 million MT (-8 million MT y/y). The outlook for trade (Jul/Jun) is boosted by 4 million MT, to 416 million MT (+6% y/y), including higher shipments than before of wheat, corn and barley.


The first full set of total grains supply and demand projections for 2021/22 point to record production, at 2.287 billion MT, up by 3% y/y. However, larger supply is expected to be entirely absorbed by higher use, leaving global stocks unchanged y/y.


With upgrades for Brazil and India more than offsetting a reduction for Argentina, global soybean production in 2020/21 is forecast by ICG fractionally higher at 361 million MT (+7% y/y). With the net increase in supplies matched by an uprated figure for use, stocks are steady at 45 million MT (-7 million MT y/y).


Trade is raised slightly, to 170 million MT, matching the prior year’s record. World harvested area is projected to expand by 4% y/y in 2021/22, as production reaches a high of 383 million MT. While some replenishment of stocks is anticipated, major exporters’ inventories are likely to remain tight. Trade is predicted to rise by 2% y/y.


The ICG forecast for global rice consumption in 2020/21 is raised, with ending stocks trimmed slightly, to 174 million MT, broadly steady y/y.


Amid prospects for increased plantings in key exporters, world production in 2021/22 is seen increasing by 1% y/y, to a peak of 510 million MT, with total use and inventories potentially at new highs. Trade in 2022 is projected at a high level on African demand.

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