Including upgrades for wheat and corn, the International Grains Council (IGC) forecast for world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2020/21 has been raised to 2.224 billion metric tons (MT), an increase of 2% y/y (year-on-year).
Because of increased consumption, projected total grain carryover stocks at the end of 2020/21 are 2 million MT lower m/m, at 609 million MT (-8 million MT y/y). The outlook for trade (Jul/Jun) is boosted by 4 million MT, to 416 million MT (+6% y/y), including higher shipments than before of wheat, corn and barley.
The first full set of total grains supply and demand projections for 2021/22 point to record production, at 2.287 billion MT, up by 3% y/y. However, larger supply is expected to be entirely absorbed by higher use, leaving global stocks unchanged y/y.
With upgrades for Brazil and India more than offsetting a reduction for Argentina, global soybean production in 2020/21 is forecast by ICG fractionally higher at 361 million MT (+7% y/y). With the net increase in supplies matched by an uprated figure for use, stocks are steady at 45 million MT (-7 million MT y/y).
Trade is raised slightly, to 170 million MT, matching the prior year’s record. World harvested area is projected to expand by 4% y/y in 2021/22, as production reaches a high of 383 million MT. While some replenishment of stocks is anticipated, major exporters’ inventories are likely to remain tight. Trade is predicted to rise by 2% y/y.
The ICG forecast for global rice consumption in 2020/21 is raised, with ending stocks trimmed slightly, to 174 million MT, broadly steady y/y.
Amid prospects for increased plantings in key exporters, world production in 2021/22 is seen increasing by 1% y/y, to a peak of 510 million MT, with total use and inventories potentially at new highs. Trade in 2022 is projected at a high level on African demand.