A US ag attaché in Brazil has forecast the 2019-20 Brazilian corn crop at 100 million metric tons (MMT). He said “poor yields in the southern states of Rio Grande do Sul and Parana after a prolonged dry spell partially offset a large expansion of area in the Center-West state of Mato Grosso.”

Last week, USDA forecast Brazil’s corn crop at 101 MMT.

Looking ahead to 2020-21, the attache’ projected Brazil’s corn crop will total 103 MMT, which is also under USDA’s 107 MMT projection. The attaché expects Brazil to export 33.5 MMT of corn in 2019-20, which would be a 16% drop from the previous season’s record that severely depleted stocks.

The post expects Brazil to consume more of this year’s crop given strong demand from the poultry and livestock sectors. The post expects exports to climb to 36 MMT in 2020-21.

The attaché stuck with its 5.6 MMT wheat crop projection for 2020-21, which would represent an 8.7% gain from last year. USDA most recently forecast the Brazilian wheat crop would total 5.7 MMT in 2020-21.

Brazil’s soya output to surge

Another attaché report out of Brazil expects soybean production for that country to surge to 130 MMT in 2020-21, which tops USDA’s forecast last Friday by 4 MMT.

“The economic downturn precipitated by the coronavirus pandemic has led to a sharp depreciation of the Brazilian real, pushing domestic soybean prices to record levels. Farmers are well-capitalized from this seasons’ revenues and are eager to reinvest these profits.”

The attaché expects Brazil to export 78 MMT of the oilseed in 2019-20 and a record-high 84 MMT in 2020-21, with currency weakness expected to continue.

“China’s seemingly insatiable demand for Brazilian soybeans has been the main headline, but perhaps, the real surprise of this marketing year has been the remarkable performance of Brazilian transportation networks, which enabled this boom.”