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US grain market bulls looking for a positive fundamental spark, but having no luck


US grain futures prices were mixed in overnight trading. Corn was up around 1 cent, soybeans up about 4 cents and wheat down 1 to 2 cents.

The highlight of the week for the grain markets is the Friday morning weekly USDA export sales report, which was delayed by one day due to the U.S. holiday on Monday.

The grain market bulls are looking for a fresh spark to ignite price rallies, but market fundamentals remain firmly bearish.

President Donald Trump is looking assuage US farmers hurt by the trade war with China by boosting US renewable fuel quotas by 1 billion gallons. That should help out corn producers and the US ethanol industry. However, corn futures prices have shown little positive reaction to the news.

The start of the US soybean and corn harvests in the coming weeks will provide more evidence of the size of this year’s crops. Next Friday’s USDA monthly supply and demand report will also give updates on the size of the US crops.

Weather in the US midwest continues to be benign, which is bearish. There are extended forecasts calling for warm weather the last half of September, which would allow the late-planted corn and soybean crops to fully mature.

Also bearish is the strong US dollar on the foreign exchange market. The U.S. dollar index has backed off late this week after hitting a 27-month high on Tuesday.

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