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Weather outlooks for world coarse grain and oilseed areas

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The following weather outlooks and commentary are courtesy of Drew Lerner and his company, World Wide Weather Inc.

 

EUROPE

 

Rain fell over the western Balkan Nations Wednesday. The rain was welcome and beneficial for spring crop development but was disruptive for any winter harvest. Moisture totals were greatest in Albania, Greece and Macedonia where totals varied from 1.00 to 2.36 inches. A few totals up to 1.37 inches extended northward into central Serbia. Otherwise, totals varied from 0.15 to 0.63 inches and locally more. Otherwise, mostly dry weather occurred.

 

Warmth spread back into France and Belgium Thursday and highs varied in the 90s most often. Highs in the 90s also occurred in eastern Bulgaria and Romania as well as the Iberian Peninsula where extremes reached 104 Fahrenheit. Otherwise, highs varied in the 70s and 80s most often.

 

Restricted precipitation and drying will occur over southwestern and west-central Europe into Germany, Denmark, southeastern Norway, Sweden, the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia as well as eastern Bulgaria into southeastern Romania and Ukraine during the coming week to ten days.

 

A ridge of high pressure will bring on warmer than usual temperatures and restrict rainfall causing increased crop stress in many areas that are already suffering including France, parts of southern UK, Belgium, the Netherlands, and parts of Germany.

Highest temperatures in Western Europe will peak in the upper 80s and 90s through early next week. Extreme highs will exceed 100 Fahrenheit into northern France Saturday and reach into the upper 90s in the southern UK today. Erratic showers may increase in southern England into France, northeastern Spain, Belgium into western Germany during the middle of next week.

 

Some of the increase in rain will occur over southern England Monday. However, most of the rainfall will be too erratic and light and greater follow up moisture will still be needed in France, Belgium and western Germany. The best improvements will occur in southern UK

Europe rainfall will be most frequent from the southwestern Balkan Nations through Greece and southern Italy early this week. Some pockets of heavy rainfall will occur, especially the next few days in Greece, Macedonia, Albania, western Bulgaria into central Serbia.

 

Next week, August 14-20, an increase in moisture is expected to evolve over southern portions of the UK and France through Italy and into the western Balkan nations. Above normal precipitation in the region will help relieve crop moisture stress, but pockets that miss out on the rainfall will continue to struggle with stress especially in west-central Europe. Meanwhile, drying will continue to put localized stress on spring crops in eastern Bulgaria and southeastern Romania.

 

US MIDWEST

Favorable conditions for crops will continue through the next ten days to two weeks in much of the Midwest, but with warmer temperatures returning this weekend and rain not great enough to prevent many areas from being significantly drier by August 21, a boost in rain will be needed in the last ten days of the month to maintain the best possible crop production potentials, especially for soybeans.

 

Although much of the Midwest will be notably drier in two weeks than today, ample subsoil moisture is in place in most areas to allow crops to continue to develop favorably for another ten days to two weeks and as long as timely rain returns soon yield potentials should remain high.

 

Drier weather will occur August 15-21 along with warmer temperatures, but some showers will develop in a part of the Midwest each day slowing drying rates where they occur while many areas will see a rising need for greater rain.

BRAZIL

 

Outside of some additional showers and thunderstorms in northeastern Brazil, several more days of restricted rain will continue before rain increases in Paraguay and southern Brazil Tuesday through August 19 with interruptions to fieldwork as well as improvements in conditions for early corn planting expected.

 

ARGENTINA

 

Isolated showers will occur most days through next Friday in parts of central and eastern Argentina with much of the rain light and not likely to have much of an impact on soil conditions outside a few small pockets. Western Argentina will remain mostly dry and in need of rain to improve conditions for winter wheat. A drier weather pattern will resume August 15-21.

 

AUSTRALIA

 

Welcome rain occurred over western and central portions of Queensland as well as western New South Wales Thursday into early this morning. Additional beneficial rain will occur over Australia during the coming ten days to two weeks. A boost in soil moisture conditions will provide a better environment for crop development and growth later this month into September as temperatures warm and typical crop growth increases. However some crop production declines are expected from dryness in the fall and winter, and some may not recover.

 

CHINA

 

The North China Plain and central Yellow River Basin will see several waves of rain during the next two weeks. The ground will be saturated in most locations Crop development will advance swiftly in most locations. However, Shandong and northern sections of Anhui and Jiangsu will likely receive enough rain to generate flooding at times. Minor crop damage will be possible in the wettest areas. The wet soil may promote sluggish growth as well

 

The Yangtze River Basin will see alternating periods of rain and sunshine during the next two weeks. Areas near and north of the Yangtze River will receive the most rain through the end of next week. Other areas south of the Yangtze River will see erratic rainfall during the next few days before drier weather evolves next week. Additional drying is expected for several areas south of the Yangtze River. Crop development conditions will be more favorable due to the drier soil

 

COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES (CIS)

 

Light rain was suspected over the Ural Mountain Region Thursday where totals varied up to 0.30 inch most often. Elsewhere, mostly dry weather occurred. Warm temperatures continued to put stress on crops in southern locations across the CIS with highs reaching into the upper 80s and 90s followed by lows in the 60s and 70s. Meanwhile, highs in northwestern Russia, the Baltic States and Belarus varied in the 70s and 80s most often.

 

Rain will increase over Russia’s Ural Mountains into northwestern portions of Russia’s Eastern New Lands this week. Some of the moisture will reach southeastern Russia’s Eastern New Lands early next week as well, but the moisture will be scattered and light in many areas. Moisture totals in the Ural Mountains will vary from 0.75 to 2.00 inches and locally more by this time next week. Further drying will precede the rain increase in the Eastern New Lands early next week. Moisture totals by this time next week will vary from 0.05 to 0.65 inches and local totals exceeding 1.00 inch.

 

Meanwhile, mostly dry weather will occur from Ukraine, Belarus, Russia’s Southern Region and into west-central Russia and the Volga Basin this week. Very little to no rainfall will occur allowing opportunities for good fieldwork throughout the region. However, dryness concerns will expand from Ukraine into Russia’s Southern Region northward into the middle Volga Basin.

 

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