ao link

Markets

Linked In
RSS
https://twitter.com/Agrimoney
http://www.newsnow.co.uk/h/Industry+Sectors/Agriculture

Weekly grain and oilseeds market view from Europe, August 21

TwitterLinkedineCard

The UK’s total wheat crop could be little more than half that achieved in 2019, with yields up to 50% down in some areas and harvested area down 25%.

 

Recent storms in the US’s largest corn producing state, Iowa, may slightly reduce the country’s overall grain and soybean yields and quality with 10m acres of crops reportedly affected.

 

Meanwhile, Russian crop is looking increasingly likely to be close to, if not exceed 80m tonnes.

 

German wheat production, estimated to be close to 22.5m tonnes will be of increased relevance for the domestic market this season, with German bread wheat export prices already providing a degree of limit on domestic bread wheat.

 

 

What to watch

The world looks set to produce another record-breaking wheat and corn crop but is demand set to follow or continue to increase further?

 

 

Global grain

US corn crop likely to guide global cereal prices this season

Global grain markets have had an exciting week mainly led by crop sizes, tenders and the weakness of the US dollar.

 

The US dollar hit a two-year low this week, largely supporting US futures values.

 

With funds short, the reaction was impressive on the upside but has since been eroded.

 

Crop sizes globally are coming under scrutiny with more discussion around quality and demand.

 

This week’s Algerian tender looks to have focused the attention of the Baltic exporters at the cost of the French.

 

The size of the Russian wheat crop remains relatively uncertain but crops of more than 80m tonnes now seem to be well discussed.

 

China is also rumoured to have been buying more grains this week, but the real question is how much?

 

The world looks set to produce another record-breaking wheat and corn crop but is demand set to follow or continue to increase further?

 

The game is now to work out the new trading partners and trade flows – will the EU be the world’s largest maize importer and Russia the world’s largest wheat exporter, and where does barley fit in at today’s values?

 

There is much still to play for especially as we near harvest time for US corn – recent weather issues in the state of Iowa, the country’s largest corn producing state may slightly reduce yields, but ultimately the size of the US corn crop is likely to guide global cereal prices this season.

 

Cecilia Pryce, Openfield

 

 

European grain

Good spring wheat yields up Russian production estimate

With the Russian wheat crop now over 60% harvested, it is looking increasingly likely to be close to, if not exceed 80m tonnes, with good spring wheat yields.

 

The August United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates increased its Russian wheat estimate by 1.5m tonnes to 78m tonnes, remaining below expectations but leaving room for further upward revision in September.

 

Overall EU wheat production was estimated to fall to 135.5m tonnes in the August USDA report, down another 4m tonnes factoring in the declines in eastern Europe, the UK and France.

 

With the French wheat harvest now complete, estimates for French production continue to be between 29m-30m tonnes.

 

German wheat production, estimated to be close to 22.5m tonnes will be of increased relevance for the domestic market this season, with German bread wheat export prices already providing a degree of limit on domestic bread wheat.

 

Within the UK, rains have put a stop to harvest for the moment.

 

In the east of the country wheat is virtually finished, however in regions further north the progress is less advanced.

 

Warm weather is set to return to the UK in the latter part of the week and over the weekend which should allow harvest to progress.

 

Fred South, CRM Agri

 

Oilseeds market

Trade politics put lid on US soybean market

The phase one trade talks between the US and China remain difficult and the US Government’s criticism of how China has handled the Covid crisis in Hong Kong could undermine any positive progress for any deal.

 

Soybeans traded higher initially midweek before moving downwards into the close as worries about trade politics affected the market.

 

There are still concerns that a lack of rain across the Midwest and last week’s storm that is reported to have affected 10m acres of crops will lead to USDA reducing soybean area and production.

 

The US weekly crop condition report showed soybean ratings down 2% on the week from 74-73% good/excellent with Iowa down 9% due to the storm.

 

A favourable weather outlook is still providing the potential for large Australian and Canadian canola crops this season.

 

Soy oil continues to firm on the back of rising soybean prices and the firmer oil markets.

 

Matif rapeseed recovered from the week’s lows on Wednesday, supported by the rise in US soybeans values, although the firmer euro has limited the gains.

 

The EU rapeseed harvest is now complete.

 

Crop estimates are higher than expected and nearby shorts seem covered, with plenty more imports available if needed.

 

The decline in the US dollar to a two-year low has seen a marked appreciation in the value of the pound over past weeks, which is limiting the rise in the UK rapeseed market.

 

David Woodland, ADM Agriculture

TwitterLinkedineCard
Related Stories

Evening markets: Grain futures suffer another start-of-week selldown

Bears are in the ascendancy as weather worries over the likes of North American spring wheat ease, and vegoils drag on the oilseeds complex

Brazilian corn 2020-21

Agrimoney collates estimates for Brazilian corn output and exports for 2020-21

Ukraine rapeseed 2020-21

Forecasts for rapeseed yield and output nex season in the key exporting country

China soybeans 2020-21

Forecasts for China’s soybean production, demand and the supply balance in 2020-21
Home | About | RSS | Commodities | Companies | Markets | Legal disclaimer | Privacy policy | Contact

Our Brands: Comtell | Feedinfo | FGInsight

© Agrimoney.com 2021

Agrimoney.com and Agrimoney are trademarks of Agrimoney Ltd
Agrimoney is part of AgriBriefing Ltd
Agrimoney Ltd is registered in England & Wales. Registered number: 09239069