The following are weather briefs for the major agricultural regions of the world, provided by Drew Lerner of World Weather Inc.
WORLD COARSE GRAIN AND OILSEED AREAS
Past Weather: Much of Brazil and Paraguay were warm and dry Wednesday and fieldwork should have advanced well in many areas with rain reported in a few western and southern locations.
Forecast Overview and Crop Impacts: Continued improvements in conditions for fieldwork will occur during the next two weeks in and near Mato Grosso and soybean harvesting and planting of second season corn should soon be completed in most of the region with some exceptions in west-central and northwestern to north-central Mato Grosso where rain will be frequent through most of the period.
Past Weather: A significant increase in rain began Wednesday with moderate to locally heavy rain reported from interior north-central Cordoba to north-central and northeastern Buenos Aires while most other areas were dry or saw light rain.
Forecast Overview and Crop Impacts: Moderate to heavy rain will expand into northern and then southern Argentina into Saturday and nearly all areas of the country will be left with notable increases in soil moisture and favorable conditions for crop development.
Past Weather: Light rain fell over southeastern South Australia and Victoria into southern New South Wales Wednesday into this morning. Moisture totals varied up to 0.50 inch most often. Local totals in Victoria reached up to 1.30 inches. Otherwise, mostly dry weather occurred.
Forecast and Impacts: Restricted precipitation will return to eastern Australia for at least the coming ten days. Historic flooding in coastal areas of New South Wales will abate. The drier weather will be beneficial for summer crop maturation and cotton quality and some early winter crop fieldwork.
A good mix of rain and sunshine is slated for much of the Yangtze River Basin during the coming week. Soil moisture will remain at adequate to excessive levels in most locations. Flash flooding will be possible south of the Yangtze River toward the end of next week, though crop and structural damage will be minimal. Winter rapeseed development conditions will remain good outside the wettest fields.
Much of the North China Plain and central Yellow River Basin will see a mix of rain and sunshine during the coming week. Hebei and Shandong will not receive enough rain to counter evaporation and the ground will slowly firm. Other winter wheat areas will receive enough rain to keep soil moisture at adequate levels. Winter wheat prospects remain favorable across the region despite some areas drying down.
The southernmost provinces will remain drier biased during the coming week. Net drying is slated for much of the region. Portions of Guangxi, Guangdong, and Fujian will have enough moisture to support aggressive planting and establishment during the next few days before the ground becomes too dry for ideal conditions. More frequent rainfall will be needed in April to improve rice, sugarcane, and corn growth. Yunnan remains too dry.
Dry or mostly dry weather will continue for the main winter crop areas in India during the coming week. The environment will remain favorable for fieldwork and aggressive maturation across the country. Crops that are still filling in irrigated areas will also see favorable conditions persist.
Alternating periods of rain and sunshine will continue for the main coarse grain and oilseed areas in South Africa during the coming week. The rain will maintain a good environment for late-season development in most locations. Maturation may be sluggish at times in the wettest locations, though no significant quality impacts are expected.
COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES (CIS)
Past Weather: A light mix of rain and wintry precipitation occurred over eastern Ukraine into Russia’s Southern Region Wednesday into early this morning. Moisture totals varied up to 0.50 inch most often. Otherwise, mostly dry weather occurred in the western CIS.
Forecast and Impacts: Frequent rounds of light rain and snow will occur during the coming ten days and the moisture will continue to support adequate soil moisture across most of the region. Some restricted precipitation will occur from western Ukraine, Belarus into central and northern Russia, but conditions will not be completely dry and temperatures will be mild and no significant evaporation will occur.
Past Weather: Mostly dry weather occurred throughout Europe Wednesday. Scattered showers were confined to Serbia, Macedonia, Bulgaria into eastern Romania and southeastern Ukraine as well as northern France where amounts were confined to totals up to 0.40 inch.
Forecast and Impact: Rounds of showers will impact northern Europe Thursday through early next week. Any showers that occur will be brief and erratic from the U.K. into central Germany and totals will be no more than 0.30 inch. Showers will expand throughout the U.K., northern and eastern France through Poland and Scandinavia Friday into the middle of next week. Although rain will be limited to today through Saturday in central and southern France into Germany and the Czech Republic. In the meantime, drying will occur throughout southern Europe this week.
MARKET WEATHER MENTALITY FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS
Argentina and Brazil weather is looking good. Late season planting of Safrinha corn and harvesting of soybeans in Brazil is increasing with better weather especially later this week into next week. Argentina weather will be well mixed to support late season crop development. Concern over April weather may soon rise if lighter than usual rain occurs as some computer forecast models are suggesting. Late planted corn will need frequent rainfall through May to support the best yield potential.
More rain in the lower U.S. Midwest and Delta through the weekend will keep fieldwork in the Delta moving along slowly. Drier and warmer weather in the early April may help induce much improved field working conditions.
HARD RED WINTER WHEAT
Significant precipitation is unlikely in the region through at least the next ten days. There will be some shower activity though, especially in the east. Temperatures in the second week of the outlook will trend warmer and greater rainfall will be needed again later in April to ensure favorable crop development.
Past Weather: Showers producing up to 0.55 inch of moisture occurred Wednesday and early today from the northwestern Texas Panhandle into central Kansas and in southeastern wheat production areas of Oklahoma. Mostly dry weather occurred elsewhere through 0100 CDT today.
NORTHERN US PLAINS
No “significant” precipitation will occur in the driest part of the region through at least the next ten days. Periods of light precipitation will continue in the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota. Temperatures in the second week of the outlook will be notably warm and will accelerate the expansion and deepening drought.
A couple of snow and rain events in the eastern and southern Prairies during the first week of the outlook will still be enough for some increase of soil moisture, especially in northern production areas of the region. There will still be a need for more precipitation though after the first week.
MARKET WEATHER MENTALITY FOR WHEAT
Wheat conditions in the United States are rated favorably, although there is need for more moisture in the southwestern and west-central high Plains. The northern Plains and Canada’s Prairies need significant moisture soon to prevent planting delays for spring cereals especially in the northern Plains.
Soft wheat in the U.S. Midwest and wheat in Europe, the CIS, China, India and portions of the Middle East and North Africa is rated favorably, although greater rain is needed in northwestern Algeria, southwestern Morocco, and from Syria into Iran and southward to Jordan and Israel. Spain will need some rain soon, as well.
Australia’s planting prospects are good for eastern parts of the nation and should increase later in the year in western areas.
South Africa may also experience good planting weather this autumn.
Overall, weather today may keep some pressure on futures prices.