RSS
Twitter
Linked In
News In
News
Linked In
RSS
https://twitter.com/Agrimoney
http://www.newsnow.co.uk/h/Industry+Sectors/Agriculture

You are viewing 1 of your 2 complimentary articles.

Register now to receive full access.

Already registered?

Login | Join us now

Cotlook ditches forecast of world cotton stocks drop in 2017-18

Twitter Linkedin eCard

Cotlook ditched expectation of a further fall in world cotton inventories next season, setting itself apart from other commentators, citing the prospects of a strong US harvest, besides hopes for growth in Indian output.

The industry commentator, which is behind the benchmark Cotlook A index of physical cotton prices, forecast a rise of 44,000 tonnes in world inventories of the fibre in 2017-18, starting in August.

The estimate contrasted with a previous expectation of a small decrease in stocks, of 47,000 tonnes.

And it placed Cotlook at odds with an idea from the US Department of Agriculture of a 520,000-tonne drop in world cotton stocks next season.

The International Cotton Advisory Committee, an intergovernmental group, forecasts a 960,000-tonne drop.

'Generally firm prices'

Cotlook's raised inventory estimate reflected an increased forecast for world production, upgraded by 91,000 tonnes to 24.5m tonnes, down in the main to improved ideas for the US harvest.

"Global raw cotton production is forecast to rise by 1.78 million tonnes, approaching 8%... as farmers react to the generally firm prices and good yields obtained during the current, 2016-17 campaign," the group said.

It lifted to 4.18m tonnes its forecast for the US crop, putting its figure in line with that of the US Department of Agriculture.

Cotlook also stood by more generous expectations for output in top grower Indian, seeing the country's harvest at 6.29m tonnes, ahead of the USDA's 6.10m-tonne figure, and a forecast from the ICAC of "just under 6m tonnes".

China vs rest of the world

The group also highlighted a "disparity" in inventory moves, with China's stocks seen dropping by nearly 2m tonnes over 2017-18, as the country extends a selldown of government inventories swollen by a now-reformed guaranteed pricing scheme for growers.

In the rest of the world, "an addition of similar magnitude is foreseen" cotton in inventories.

By Mike Verdin

Twitter Linkedin eCard
Related Stories

Evening markets: Soybeans extend rally, as Argentina forecast 'continues to trend drier'

...while wheat futures get help from worries over US dryness, and talk of "blowing dust" in Texas. Corn can’t keep up the pace

Funds renew ag selling wave - leaving them open to 'precarious position' on soy

... and potentially leaving them vulnerable to short-covering drives in the likes of wheat, coffee and sugar too. Still, in cotton...

Brokers enter 2018 upbeat on ag market, lifting price hopes

The market is expected to perform far better this year than in 2017, FocusEconomics says, flagging price upgrades in a range of contracts - notably wool

Hedge fund positions in numbers, for week to January 16

Markets extra lists the latest official data on hedge fund positions in ag commodity derivatives, and how they have changed week on week
Home | About | RSS | Commodities | Companies | Markets | Legal disclaimer | Privacy policy | Contact

Our Brands: Comtell | Feedinfo | FGInsight

© Agrimoney.com 2017

Agrimoney.com and Agrimoney are trademarks of Agrimoney Ltd
Agrimoney is part of the Briefing Media group
Agrimoney Ltd is registered in England & Wales. Registered number: 09239069