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Headline findings of Wasde report - good reading for corn bears

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Below the headline readings from the US Department of Agriculture’s November Wasde report.

 

The figures in bold show the actual Wasde data, which are compared with the estimates from the previous Wasde, and the figures that investors had expected.

 

In short, the data look encouraging a further downswing in corn prices.

 

Corn 2017-18

US yield: 175.4 bushels per acre

Change on previous estimate: +3.6bpa

Change on investor expectations: +3.0 bpa

 

US production: 14.578bn bushels

Change on previous estimate: +298m bushels

Change on investor expectations: +245m bushels

 

US carryout stocks: 2.487bn bushels

Change on previous estimate: +147m bushels

Change on investor expectations: +121m bushels

 

World carryout stocks: 203.86m tonnes

Change on previous estimate: +2.90m tonnes

Change on investor expectations: +2.86m tonnes

 

 

Soybeans 2017-18

US yield: 49.5 bushels per acre

Change on previous estimate: no change

Change on investor expectations: +0.2 bpa

 

US production: 4.425bn bushels

Change on previous estimate: -6m bushels

Change on investor expectations: +13m bushels

 

US carryout stocks: 425m bushels

Change on previous estimate: -5m bushels

Change on investor expectations: +5m bushels

 

World carryout stocks: 97.90m tonnes

Change on previous estimate: +1.85m tonnes

Change on investor expectations: +2.4m tonnes

 

 

Wheat 2017-18

US carryout stocks: 935m bushels

Change on previous estimate: -25m bushels

Change on investor expectations: -22m bushels

World carryout stocks: 267.53m tonnes

Change on previous estimate: -0.60m tonnes

Change on investor expectations: +0.75m tonnes

 

 

Other key estimate changes for 2017-18

Corn:

Ukraine production downgraded by 2.0m tonnes to 25.0m tonnes

Ukraine exports downgraded by 1.0m tonnes to 20.5m tonnes

 

Soybeans

Brazilian production upgraded by 1.0m tonnes to 108.0m tonnes

Brazilian exports upgraded by 1.0m tonnes to 65.0m tonnes

 

Chinese imports upgraded by 2.0m tonnes to 97.0m tonnes

 

Wheat

Australian exports downgraded by 0.5m tonnes to 17.5m tonnes

(Production estimate kept unchanged at 21.5m tonnes)

 

European Union production upgraded by 0.45m tonnes to 151.49m tonnes

 

Pakistan production downgraded by 0.5m tonnes to 25.7m tonnes

 

Russian production upgraded by 1.0m tonnes to 83.0m tonnes

Russian exports upgraded by 0.5m tonnes to 33.0m tonnes

 

 

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