Ikar has, again, upgraded its forecast for the wheat crop in Russia, the top exporter of the grain.
Over a series of six upgrades in less than a month, the Moscow-based analysis group has added 4.5m tonnes to its harvest estimate, taking the forecast to 82.5m tonnes.
That is the most generous estimate among those from major commentators, although many other analysts, such as SovEcon, have also been raising their forecasts.
One potential headwind to further upgrades is a caution over Siberia, the country’s largest spring wheat producer, where crop is said by SovEcon to be in the "worst shape since 2012”.
Agritel said on Tuesday that “in some parts of Siberia the first frosts have been recorded, which could penalise late-planted spring wheat”.