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Trade expectations for data in Friday's key USDA reports

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The US Department of Agriculture will on Friday at 11am Chicago time (5pm UK time) unveil a series of much-anticipated crop reports.

 

Besides the monthly Wasde briefing, giving revised estimates for world crop supply and demand, the USDA will also unveil data on domestic grain stocks as of the start of December, and in winter wheat plantings for 2018.

 

Below, results of Bloomberg and Reuters surveys on what investors expect.

 

 

 

Trade forecasts for Wasde data on 2017-18 closing stocks
Bloomberg Reuters Current USDA figure
Consensus forecast Range of forecasts Consensus forecast Range of forecasts

US corn

 

2.437bn bushels 2.263bn-2.550bn bushels 2.431bn bushels 2.263bn-2.550bn bushels 2.437bn bushels

World corn

 

202.6m tonnes 197.0m-207.0m tonnes 203.09m tonnes 198.5m-207.0m tonnes 204.08m tonnes

US soybeans

 

479m bushels 442m-595m bushels 472m bushels 425m-543m bushels 445m bushels

World soybeans

 

99.0m tonnes 97.0m-100.4m tonnes 99.06m tonnes 97.0m-100.5m tonnes 98.32m tonnes

US wheat

 

959m bushels 855m-987m bushels 959m bushels 855m-986m bushels 960m bushels

World wheat

 

268.1m tonnes 265.0.m-271.0m tonnes 268.42m tonnes 265.0.m-271.0m tonnes 268.26m tonnes

 

 

 

 

Trade forecasts for Wasde data on US 2017-18 crop production
Bloomberg Reuters Current USDA figure
Consensus forecast Range of forecasts Consensus forecast Range of forecasts
Corn area (harvested)
n/a n/a 83.103m acres 83.0m-83.222m acres 83.119m acres

Corn yield

 

175.4 bushels per acre 173.7-177.0 bushels per acre 175.4 bushels per acre 173.7-177.0 bushels per acre 175.4 bushels per acre

Corn production

 

14.580bn bushels 14.434bn-14.75bn bushels 4.579bn bushels 14.40bn-14.75bn bushels 14.578bn bushels

Soybean area (harvested)

n/a n/a 89.5m acres 89.25m-89.9m acres 89.47m acres

Soybean yield

 

n/a n/a 49.5 bushels per acre 49.0-50.0 bushels per acre 49.5 bushels per acre

Soybean production

 

4.43bn bushels 4.385bn-4.475bn bushels 4.43bn bushels 4.39bn-4.47bn bushels 4.43bn bushels

 

 

 

Trade forecasts for USDA data on US crop stocks, December 1 2017
Bloomberg Reuters Year-ago USDA figure
Consensus forecast Range of forecasts Consensus forecast Range of forecasts
Corn
12.429bn bushels 12.23bn-12.675bn bushels 12.431bn bushels 12.23bn-12.675bn bushels 12.386bn bushels

Soybeans

 

3.179bn bushels 2.963bn-3.306bn bushels 3.181bn bushels 2.963bn-3.305bn bushel 2.898bn bushels

Wheat

 

1.851bn bushels 1.725bn-2.005bn bushels 1.849bn bushels 1.795bn-1.906bn bushels 2.077bn bushels

 

 

 

 

 

Trade forecasts for USDA estimates for US winter wheat sowings
Bloomberg Reuters USDA 2017 seedings
Consensus forecast Range of forecasts Consensus forecast Range of forecasts
Hard red winter
22.4m acres 21.1m-23.3m acres 22.327m acres 21.1m-23.1m acres 23.426m acres

Soft red winter

 

5.6m acres 5.2m-5.9m acres 5.555m acres 5.18m-5.90m acres 5.733m acres

White winter

 

3.5m acres 3.1m-3.8m acres 3.435m acres 3.12m-3.60m acres 3.537m acres

Total winter wheat

31.5m acres 30.1m-32.5m acres 31.307m acres 30.1m-32.0m acres 32.696m acres

 

 

 

Trade forecasts for USDA estimates for South American corn, soybean production
Bloomberg Reuters USDA 2017 seedings
Consensus forecast Range of forecasts Consensus forecast Range of forecasts
Brazilian corn
93.3m tonnes 86.7m-98.5m tonnes 94.1m tonnes 86.7m-98.5m tonnes 95.0m tonnes

Brazilian soybeans

 

110.1m tonnes 108.0m-115.0m tonnes 110.3m tonnes 108.5m-115.0m tonnes 108.0m tonnes

Argentine corn

 

41.4m tonnes 40.0m-42.5m tonnes 41.5m tonnes 41.0m-42.5m tonnes 42.0m tonnes

Argentine soybeans

56.0m tonnes 54.0m-58.0m tonnes 56.3m tonnes 55.0m-58.0m tonnes 57.0m tonnes

 

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